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View Poll Results: Where should Matt put the $500 chip? | |||
Who cares, go F yourself. | 29 | 16.38% | |
choices. | 2 | 1.13% | |
many | 1 | 0.56% | |
too | 3 | 1.69% | |
I made | 1 | 0.56% | |
Other? | 4 | 2.26% | |
double 0 | 13 | 7.34% | |
3rd column | 4 | 2.26% | |
2nd column | 7 | 3.95% | |
1st column | 1 | 0.56% | |
3rd 12 | 3 | 1.69% | |
2nd 12 | 5 | 2.82% | |
1st 12 | 3 | 1.69% | |
19-36 | 2 | 1.13% | |
1-18 | 2 | 1.13% | |
odd | 3 | 1.69% | |
even | 3 | 1.69% | |
36 | 0 | 0% | |
35 | 0 | 0% | |
34 | 0 | 0% | |
33 | 2 | 1.13% | |
32 | 2 | 1.13% | |
31 | 1 | 0.56% | |
30 | 0 | 0% | |
29 | 1 | 0.56% | |
28 | 2 | 1.13% | |
27 | 5 | 2.82% | |
26 | 0 | 0% | |
25 | 1 | 0.56% | |
24 | 0 | 0% | |
23 | 8 | 4.52% | |
22 | 4 | 2.26% | |
21 | 0 | 0% | |
20 | 3 | 1.69% | |
19 | 1 | 0.56% | |
18 | 4 | 2.26% | |
17 | 5 | 2.82% | |
16 | 1 | 0.56% | |
15 | 0 | 0% | |
14 | 2 | 1.13% | |
13 | 11 | 6.21% | |
12 | 5 | 2.82% | |
11 | 3 | 1.69% | |
10 | 1 | 0.56% | |
9 | 1 | 0.56% | |
8 | 1 | 0.56% | |
7 | 1 | 0.56% | |
6 | 1 | 0.56% | |
5 | 1 | 0.56% | |
4 | 2 | 1.13% | |
3 | 3 | 1.69% | |
2 | 2 | 1.13% | |
1 | 0 | 0% | |
Black (pussy bet) | 11 | 6.21% | |
Red (pussy bet) | 6 | 3.39% | |
Voters: 177. You may not vote on this poll |
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#1
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Poll, should I continue taking this shot?
First off, I don't want this to come off as a brag post. I am looking for advice from people who have taken shots at limits they are not necesarily bankrolled for.
I recently ran well in my regular games of 3/6 6max and 5/10 6max. I decided I'd take a 25BB shot at 10/20 6max. If I lost that 25BB, I check it off as a learning experience for moving up in the future. So far I'm 800 hands in and am up to 75BB for that level. I just ran some 'risk of ruin' calculations and came up with the following: Assuming a standard deviation of 16.5BB / 100, my risk of ruin (ruin = losing my 10/20 winnings and initial 25BB investment) for different hypothetical winrates are as follows: Winrate = 2.0, ROR = 33% Winrate = 1.5, ROR = 44% Winrate = 1.0, ROR = 58% I feel like I am probably between 1.0 and 1.5 BB / 100 winner in this game (if one can even estimate such a thing). How should I proceed from here? If I continue taking this shot, am I effectively flipping a coin for 75BB ($1,500)? When I look at it that way it makes me want to discontinue taking the shot. Perhaps I can remove my initial 25BB investment so that if I lose my winnings I will have gained 'free' experience at 10/20. What do you think? |
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