5/10 6m A8s against a 2+2er

[jason_t]

I don't know who BB is here and I don't think that he knows who I am, but he typed my screenname and "sup bro?" in the chatbox.

I raise A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG and it's folded to the BB who calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Check, bet, call

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Check, check.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Bet, call.

[Entity]

Very good.

[donger]

ni han. This is the best way to extract value here.

[mscags]

Why don't you just lead out on all streets?

[jason_t]

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Why don't you just lead out on all streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

WA/WB.

[wheelz]

nh. finally moving up. good call.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why don't you just lead out on all streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

WA/WB.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think so? BB might defend with any broadway here. That gives him 4 outs to a straight. He's not calling a turn bet with KT or QT.

I don't know if this outweighs the beneits of avoiding a checkraise on the turn, but I'm just throwing it out there. Sometimes I play it this way, some days I bet the turn to fold out gutshots.

[w_alloy]

Very very well played. I hope I would be aware enough to not bet turn. I doubt it.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
You think so? BB might defend with any broadway here. That gives him 4 outs to a straight. He's not calling a turn bet with KT or QT.

[/ QUOTE ]
Doesn't 4 outs still put villain WB? I'm never sure how many outs is the "cutoff" point to use this line.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why don't you just lead out on all streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

WA/WB.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think so? BB might defend with any broadway here. That gives him 4 outs to a straight. He's not calling a turn bet with KT or QT.

I don't know if this outweighs the beneits of avoiding a checkraise on the turn, but I'm just throwing it out there. Sometimes I play it this way, some days I bet the turn to fold out gutshots.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's possible that he peeled the flop with KT/QT, but the 9% of the time that I give up this 3.2 BB pot by letting him catch a four outer is outweighed by the likelihood that an aggressive player will bluff at the river after I check the turn. Let's say that he'll bet the river 100% of the time.

Then EV(check) = 91% * (4.2 BB) - 9% * (1 BB) = 3.73 BB

whereas

EV(bet) = 3.2 BB

assuming that he holds KT/QT and will bet the river 100% of the time. Now this analysis ignores certain possibilities, for example, he might semibluff check/raise the turn with KT/QT which actually decreases the EV of a bet because I have to fold.

You see, I'm so far ahead of KT/QT in relation to the size of the pot that giving him a free shot at it is okay if I think it's likely he'll bluff the river. As the pot gets larger, it becomes more correct for me to bet assuming I know that he holds KT/QT.

So that, combined with the fact that I'm behind a few of possible Ax hands and of course a J and he might bluff the river if I check, points to a turn check being the best play. I think.