On a downswing

Kluddeludde · #1 01-22-2005, 10:12 PM

I usually take my downswings with ease, because I know that they will eventually turn around, but this month I've really hit the rock bottom and I am starting to doubt my ability to beat this game. Over the last 25k hands I've played I'm down about 70 BB and it doesn't seem to turn around. Therefore I decided to post a couple of randomly selected hands from my PT database for a couple of days and have you review them. Hopefully most of them are standard. If anyone think it will help if I post some stats as well, I will. Anyway, here are the first hands.

Hand 1:

UTG in this hand is 21.7/2.46/0.46. BB is unknown.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 6 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (6.20 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.20 BB

Hand 2:

Both opponents are unknown.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (3.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls, CO folds.

Turn: (2.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.

River: (4.70 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 6.70 BB

Hand 3:

UTG in this hand is 20.7/10.9/1.76.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $5.
UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls.

River: (8.70 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 10.70 BB

I appreciate any and all help I can get. Thanks!

Kludde

jonahmavesin · #2 01-22-2005, 10:20 PM

Hand 1 - I'd take the free card on 4th street here. You're drawing worse than the caller probably is, not all of your A or Q outs may be good. I'd check that through and save a bet.

Hand 2 - I'm assuming you lost since you posted, but I don't see to what. He'd raise a flush on the end, right? Was it Jx or something?

Hand 3 - Again, don't see what you lost to. Chopped with an Ace? I'd again assume a flush would raise. My only advice here is you may be better off raising the flop and trying for the free card than raising the turn on the semi-bluff. But I guess it depends on your reads.

wuarhg · #3 01-22-2005, 10:23 PM

They all look pretty good to me. I think I've seen you around at 5/10, does your nickname at Party resemble your 2+2 name at all? I'm having a similiar period myself, gone 8,000 hands break-even, nothing as much as you though. It will turn around, that's a +EV bet [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Kluddeludde · #4 01-23-2005, 09:17 AM

Hand 1 - I'd take the free card on 4th street here. You're drawing worse than the caller probably is, not all of your A or Q outs may be good. I'd check that through and save a bet.

I think that when I played this hand I figured there was to big a chance my hand was still best, since he may very well call the flop with two overcards and obviously a flush draw. That's the reason I bet.

I'm assuming you lost since you posted, but I don't see to what.

This is just random (well, almost) hands from my database, both hands I lost and hands I won. Just because I win a hand, doesn't necessarily mean I played it well.

My only advice here is you may be better off raising the flop and trying for the free card than raising the turn on the semi-bluff.

Now that I think about it, I really don't see what kind of better hands UTG+1 will fold if I raise on the turn here. However, the reason I didn't raise the flop was that I figured he was aggressive enough to bet into me again on the turn with something like a middle pair.

Thanks for responding!

Kludde

Kluddeludde · #5 01-23-2005, 09:21 AM

I think I've seen you around at 5/10, does your nickname at Party resemble your 2+2 name at all?

Yup, my nickname is McLudde, so you've probably seen me. I hope you have a read on me as TAG. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

It will turn around, that's a +EV bet.

I hope so. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Kludde

Evan · #6 01-23-2005, 09:23 AM

I had a 160 bb downswing last Thursday, don't feel bad.

Kluddeludde · #7 01-23-2005, 09:36 AM

I will try to go through these hands street by street and feel free to comment on my thinking.

Hand 1:

He had K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and HHIG. Preflop in this hand is standard. Flop bet I think is standard as well, there's just to big a chance my hand is best at the moment. Turn is perhaps a bit debatable, though. I figured that he could be on two overcards, a flush draw or possibly a made hand at the moment (such as a pair+straight draw, made straight, overpair, etc), and that there was just to big a chance that my hand was still best. Perhaps this was foolish. On the river I figured that even though he is kind of passive, he will try to bluff this one 1 in 7 times for it to be profitable.

Hand 2:

He had Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and MHIG. On the flop I figured there was a big chance my hand was best and I would have bet this even without the gutshot. On the turn I hit my straight and bet it. And even though the flush comes on the river, he will call me with worse hands more than 50% of the time to make a river bet profitable. I would also probably call a raise on the river, good?

Hand 3:

He had 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and MHIG. Preflop is standard in this hand. Flop is perhaps debatable. I figured that he was just too likely to bet into me again on the turn, since he was pretty aggressive, if I raised the flop. Perhaps this was weak thinking on my part. The turn is debatable as well, and the more I think about it, the less I like it. I can't think of many better hands that he will fold to this raise. River, though, I think is a clear value bet.

Thanks for the responses!

Kludde

Kluddeludde · #8 01-23-2005, 09:38 AM

Not feeling bad, just doubting my ability to beat the game. 160 BB is horrible by the way. I hope you were playing 6-max.

Kludde

Hoi Polloi · #9 01-23-2005, 10:11 AM

FYI: I wrote the hand notes before I saw the results.

In the last week I've made back most of the 25% of my bankroll that I lost since the first of the year and boy does it feel good. Maybe I'm just in a bright patch in an even uglier downswing but I'm going to enjoy it now.

You are obviously going through a tough patch and I wish you better luck. I do detect 2 things. 1) The tone of your posts clearly reflect your loss of confidence. It's really hard to play well when you feel that way. Hell, isn't is always hard to play well? 2) Your play in 2 of these hands seems a little off.

Hand 1: Take the free card on the turn. You earned it and you probably need it. You have to play the board on the river. That's poker.

Hand 2: This looks fine to me.

Hand 3: I think you should raise or fold the flop. I would raise unless I have reads everytime. You can fold if he plays back or call and fold the turn bet. But I really think the call is weak here.

If you're really feeling like you can't beat the game take a break or play 2/4 for a couple of days...that'll get your mojo working. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

A break is probably best.

Good luck.

Rico Suave · #10 01-23-2005, 12:19 PM

Kluddeludde:

[ QUOTE ]
Not feeling bad, just doubting my ability to beat the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know how you feel. I went through about 19k hands at the party 5/10 breaking even. I have had bad stretches before...200BB downswings, etc....but never over this extended length. It gets to the point where you feel you just suck and you doubt you will ever see 2 consecutive winning sessions.

If you hang in there, I am sure it will come around.......I have had a nice little run over that last 2500 hands that has eased the pain a bit.

--Rico