how many outs do i have?

[joker122]

solid tag - 25/17/2.3 over 3k hands.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (5.20 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>,

[gehrig]

enough. he has A7/A5/K7/55/little spades a lot more than he has you drawing dead

call turn and call river if a k/t/spade comes. raise/call if you make the second nut flush. if he leads into you when an ace falls you should probably fold but i usually suck too much to do that

around 7-9 I would think. Its enough anyhow.

[hemstock]

Are we folgind the river UI?

[callydrias]

[ QUOTE ]
enough. he has A7/A5/K7/55/little spades a lot more than he has you drawing dead

[/ QUOTE ]

The "little spades" part caught my eye here. Of the 9 unseen [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s, two thirds of them are smaller than T. Even then there's still a 58% chance you're drawing dead if your opponent has 2 random [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s.

Just for fun, here's a breakdown of the hands that beat us and the outs we have to win (not chop) weighted by their likelihood. Given the preflop and flop action, we'll rule out AA/KK/AK/K7/77.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Hand Ways Outs Weighted
A5 6 3+9 1.2
A7 6 3+9 1.2
K5 6 5+9 1.4
Ks5 3 5 0.25
55 3 8 0.45
XsYs 36 9*0.42 3.36
---- ----
60 7.86 = Total Outs
</pre><hr />

So, yeah, we have plenty of outs to see the river. Calling UI? I don't think so.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
raise/call if you make the second nut flush.

[/ QUOTE ]
maybe a nitpick but the best we can make is the 3rd nuts.

also i typically do not 3-bet the flop here against another tag.