Question on how to bet when the flop misses

[AKQJ10]

Excellent question -- it shows that you're thinking about how to disguise your play.

I would guess you probably want to continuation bet at least 75% of the time with one opponent or possibly two tight opponents, because it's usually a +EV play. At the worst, unless your opponents are tricky enough to try a big check-raise or are trapping with a big hand, you're usually semibluffing with 6 outs to improve.

If your flop bet is called, you don't want to get in the habit of automatically playing the turn passively. I'd probably bet the turn 20% of the time I don't improve if it's still checked to me.

[ QUOTE ]
If your flop bet is called, you don't want to get in the habit of automatically playing the turn passively. I'd probably bet the turn 20% of the time I don't improve if it's still checked to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great advice. I can see the hands replaying in my mind where I and other players likely tossed into the muck because a smart player did this very thing. Position is the real key on this one I think which you implied by mentioning "if it is checked to me".

Now I ask, are you looking for elimination or value when you make this bet on the turn?

One thing is certain and wise to watch for. There are many players who will call call and eventually fold to a third bet. I have seen this time after time so be alert and keep your mental notes straight on those players. This is often times the fold threshold for them. Respectful of those players, once that bet goes down on the turn, the odds to the river have greatly changed from that of the turn to river odds.

Monty