Is My Thinking Flawed...Pre-Flop Implied Odds

[k_squared]

aaron, regardless of the fact that you only have 78 posts I think your analysis is right on. Frankly, anyone who begins a post rebuking a claim by noting how many posts someone else has is being defensive... but that is not the real issue at hand.

I am not totally against playing this hand, but I think that it is at best a pretty break-even proposition in the long run. How would you play if the board came all unders? would you fold then? How would you plaay if you hit an inside straight draw and were faced with one bet in a big pot (you probably should call given your opponents even though you are behind)!

In a multi-way pot if you are raised you lose a lot of your implied odds when facing the decision to call two bets cold, although the fact that multiple players are in the hand does in fact mitigate this to a degree. What I know is that a pair of sevens is a very vulnerable hand against 4 opponents. Even when you hit your flop you are often faced with difficult situations. A set is not a guaranteed win. In fact, the flop you saw was not ideal! An ideal flop would not put a straight on the board... or any over cards... but with 77 that is not possible!!! you either will have straight possibilities or over cards present (and overcards mean at least the possibility of over pairs). I am not advocating playing scared. I play aggressively when I make a hand even when the board is scary to get a feel for where my opponents are, but I do not like playing 77 for a raise against a field of opponents, one of whom you know has a big pocket pair.

-K_squared

[Stew]

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aaron, regardless of the fact that you only have 78 posts I think your analysis is right on. Frankly, anyone who begins a post rebuking a claim by noting how many posts someone else has is being defensive... but that is not the real issue at hand.

I am not totally against playing this hand, but I think that it is at best a pretty break-even proposition in the long run. How would you play if the board came all unders? would you fold then? How would you plaay if you hit an inside straight draw and were faced with one bet in a big pot (you probably should call given your opponents even though you are behind)!

In a multi-way pot if you are raised you lose a lot of your implied odds when facing the decision to call two bets cold, although the fact that multiple players are in the hand does in fact mitigate this to a degree. What I know is that a pair of sevens is a very vulnerable hand against 4 opponents. Even when you hit your flop you are often faced with difficult situations. A set is not a guaranteed win. In fact, the flop you saw was not ideal! An ideal flop would not put a straight on the board... or any over cards... but with 77 that is not possible!!! you either will have straight possibilities or over cards present (and overcards mean at least the possibility of over pairs). I am not advocating playing scared. I play aggressively when I make a hand even when the board is scary to get a feel for where my opponents are, but I do not like playing 77 for a raise against a field of opponents, one of whom you know has a big pocket pair.

-K_squared

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You have made probably the best argument against playing the hand thus far and I certainly agree with your analysis and you make excellent points.

I certainly agree that playing this hand in this situation (on the button against a known raiser with an overpair) is a losing proposition. However, I felt that knowing all six players were going to take the flop certainly made the hand turn into a potential EV situation and the apparent weakenesses of teh two limpers that could be exploited made it a clear easy play in my opinion.

Certainly it's not something that I always sit back and think...OK two players limped, one player raised, oh I've got pocket sevens, I'd better call b/c I have odds to do so.

There's much more to it than that.

I do also want to make not of one error in your post, I lose absolutely ZERO IMPLIED odds when faced with a raise. Pot odds, yes, break-even pot odds, also YES. Pot Equity certainly decreases knowing there is an overpair out there. But, implied odds in my opinion increased as I saw the potential for a large pot, which is part of the reason I actually played the hand.

I clearly stated I had intended to see the hand to the turn for 3 small bets, possibly four, almost regardless of what came. Although, I think with the same flop texture not containing a seven, I would have clearly folded to the raise and re-raise. If unders had come, I would have also probably folded b/c there are only the 2,3,4,5,6 and any combo of three of those makes a straight possible with an Ace, so I probably would have gotten out of that too. But, then again, maybe the flop gets checked with a board like that, or at the very least it's one bet

One final thing, everyone keeps harping on set over set and I understand that's possible, but again the likeliehood of that occuring are so insignifigant, that it's negligible in my opinion. And, even if a flop came all one suit or 3 to a straight, I.E, 7,8,j or whatever. With a flopped set, I'm 2 - 1 to make a full house on the river.

[TripleH68]

If you feel condident this will not be raised behind you preflop I think it is fine.

If you don't hit your set or an OESD this is an easy hand to get away from.
Only possible trouble is your position relative to the uber-tight preflop raiser.

[Stew]

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If you feel condident this will not be raised behind you preflop I think it is fine.

If you don't hit your set or an OESD this is an easy hand to get away from.
Only possible trouble is your position relative to the uber-tight preflop raiser.

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Yes, I was confident (but certainly not sure) that there would be no raise behind me. The SB had not raised a pot in the hour he'd sat there. The other player was a local rock that I'd played with two other times and I was pretty sure he wouldn't raise it...very weak-tight.

Also, I felt good about my position, I was on the button. Additionally, I liked having the uber-tight player on my right who could bet my hand for me and I could lure in the two early limpers if I hit my set for big bets on the turn and river.

[Vash]

The biggest problem with your hand is that even if you flop a set, there are 2 outs for you opponent and, more importantly, 8 scare cards out there. You figure your opponent for AA, KK, or QQ... now what do you do when you flop a set and the flop or turn puts an ace, king, or queen on the board? For all you know, he just picked up a higher set... which could cause you to make an incorrect fold, or even worse, if he DID pick up the higher set and you think he's simply betting the overpair, you could lose a serious stack of chips.

[Stew]

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The biggest problem with your hand is that even if you flop a set, there are 2 outs for you opponent and, more importantly, 8 scare cards out there. You figure your opponent for AA, KK, or QQ... now what do you do when you flop a set and the flop or turn puts an ace, king, or queen on the board? For all you know, he just picked up a higher set... which could cause you to make an incorrect fold, or even worse, if he DID pick up the higher set and you think he's simply betting the overpair, you could lose a serious stack of chips.

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Again, the question isn't about the play of the hand after the flop, or anything else that happened from the flop on. If I wanted that advice, I'd post it in the SS forum....it is soley the question of whether or not calling with 77 on the button in a SHORT-HANDED pot with what will based on table conditions almost certainly have 8-10 big bets in it by the turn, and probably at least 15 or more when the hand is over.

BTW, I would never incorrectly fold a set if an A or K came in this scenario, at worst I'd check-call it down, there is too much money in the pot to fold.

Again, you are worried about things that could happen to cause you to lose the hand, not win a lot of chips.

[bighomage]

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The biggest problem with your hand is that even if you flop a set, there are 2 outs for you opponent and, more importantly, 8 scare cards out there. You figure your opponent for AA, KK, or QQ... now what do you do when you flop a set and the flop or turn puts an ace, king, or queen on the board? For all you know, he just picked up a higher set... which could cause you to make an incorrect fold, or even worse, if he DID pick up the higher set and you think he's simply betting the overpair, you could lose a serious stack of chips.

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I actually do think this is a valid point because the threat of a king or ace hitting with your 7 on the flop will seriously affect the confidence with which you try to build the pot post flop. I don't have a calculator in front of me so I can't figure out the odds, but an ace or king will hit the flop with that 7 a significant amount of times. For that matter, since he probably won't give up his hand, you should consider how often an ace or king will hit the board. This is important to think about when considering the implied odds.

[Stew]

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The biggest problem with your hand is that even if you flop a set, there are 2 outs for you opponent and, more importantly, 8 scare cards out there. You figure your opponent for AA, KK, or QQ... now what do you do when you flop a set and the flop or turn puts an ace, king, or queen on the board? For all you know, he just picked up a higher set... which could cause you to make an incorrect fold, or even worse, if he DID pick up the higher set and you think he's simply betting the overpair, you could lose a serious stack of chips.

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I actually do think this is a valid point because the threat of a king or ace hitting with your 7 on the flop will seriously affect the confidence with which you try to build the pot post flop. I don't have a calculator in front of me so I can't figure out the odds, but an ace or king will hit the flop with that 7 a significant amount of times. For that matter, since he probably won't give up his hand, you should consider how often an ace or king will hit the board. This is important to think about when considering the implied odds.

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But the flaw in your thinking is that an A or a K will hit the flop when it is UNKNOWN where 2 of those 8 cards are...I knew where two were. Additionally, I could say with about 75% certainty that pre-flop one of the additional A's or K's were gone as the two limpers liked to play hands with any one big card.

It just seems to me that you are all more worried about him hitting a two outer ONCE I hit my set and do you understand what the odds of set over set are? I mean that to me should factor in very little in my decision-making.

If I hit my set on the flop, I'm probably gonna win the hand at least 8, if not 9 times out of ten and certainly losing to a higher set would have been the last of my concerns (as opposed to a straight or flush).

[bighomage]

Ya, you're right. It doesn't make too much of a difference. But it is a small factor in your implied odds decision. I'm not saying it should swing your decision; I like the play. It's just that what the other guy brought up has some validity preflop, rather than just how you play the hand postflop. Nice hand by the way.

[BlindMessiah]

Hi,

I don't have much to say. Tho, it seems to me that you want the community to say to you: Wow man, your reading of the play is ggreeeattt! If you are sure of a play you made, don't ask questions about it.