Good bluff or just stupid?

[mts]

at first i thought you were joking but after some research my team tells me you are in fact, not joking.

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
Au contraire. A semi brilliant play, because he is taking advantage of the fact that villain has no read on him!!! The fact that she threw her 225TC in the pot made this worth the risk--she was a fool NOT to call, unless, of course, she didn't have cards to back up her raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Beautiful San Diego, ah yes. Which of course, in English means a whale's vagina."

Brad

[ziggydonks]

i think that this play itself isn't terrible, but the timimg is. If you did this on the bubble when you and villina had comparible stacks, i would love it. However, on the first hand, increasing your stack by 30% is at best minimally helpful to your chances of going deep in the tournament. When you balance out that minimal benefit with the large downside, this move is badly timed.

[locutus2002]

[ QUOTE ]
"Beautiful San Diego, ah yes. Which of course, in English means a whale's vagina."

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I live in San Diego.

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"Beautiful San Diego, ah yes. Which of course, in English means a whale's vagina."

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I live in San Diego.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok.

I was quoting the movie "Anchorman", attempting to use humor to show how confused a post was. I do really apologize if I offended San Diegoans in any way.

Brad

[Tailgunner]

I'm not staking your bid for the bracelet, as I would have folded this trash preflop to the raise, even from the BB... but that wasn't the point of this thread.

However, once involved, I do still like the play. Folks talk about no reads, about feelings, about "knowing"... well, I "put" her on a hand not by instinct, but by logic. She raised preflop from EP - that narrows down her likely starting hands. She did not bet the flop - TT-AA almost certainly would have (third of four to act, no less) instead of giving the flush and straight draws a free card. This narrows her likely hands even further, now most likely AT or AJ.

Ya say this play needs to work 2/3 of the time... in my experience, it does. The real danger was that she was a bit loose and was holding A7, and more often than not that isn't the case. Truthfully, it doesn't even need to work that often, as when it succeeds it provides more momentum to roll into the money, the net reward paying off more than the risk. Worst case I'm out 30 bucks after wasting a few minutes of my time, best case I have an early chip lead and plenty of options to create the image I want... in the long run that's +EV. That's why I often choose to show... with no previous read I'd love for you to think I'm a LAG and come after me, and it's a opportunity to try and induce some tilt [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Risking all to win a third may look like a bad call, but if poker was just a game of odds and mathematical percentages it'd be a real dull game played by computers. In the end, no matter how well you calculate the right play and factor in the psychological element, sometimes you just gotta lay your nuts on the chopping block.

He saw an opportunity and went for it, and I've got to give him credit for the guts to make what he thought was the right play when the math said otherwise... it's the kind of steel that is the essence of poker.

[Brad F.]

I will agree to disagree then. I never would make this play and I don't think it makes me a worse player. I pull it off later in a tourney, sure. But not here. Those extra chips are worth not a whole lot to me early on, not enough to risk my stack.

Brad