can i fold KK pre-flop ?

[adanthar]

Search my name in the MTT forum for the 'fantasy NLHE' thread.

(this is Party. sometimes he has aces. more often, he feels like calling. you have kings. call)

[stripsqueez]

i'm not convinced everybody who read this post did so properly - i raised a limper to T60 - the next guy pushed and 2 other guys called before it came back to me

given it was hand 4 i knew nothing about these guys

i called and got shown AA, AK, and QQ

at the time i figured i might see a couple of AK's and some joke hand but putting my stack in 4 way early is never going to be great - i think fold is the best plan

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[adanthar]

Well, there's certainly gonna be a QQ-TT and an AK-AQ in there somewhere. You're always way ahead of the all in and almost always ahead of the caller.

So it's up to UTG, who might have aces, or might have AK, or might have nines or JTs and feel frisky.

I can make this laydown with QQ and always make it with AKs but folding kings there is just wrong on principle exactly because it's the fourth hand and you have no read. If it was Hand 40 or Hand 400 with this guy I'd be a lot happier.

[ChrisV]

I know "this is Party" but the 100s are not normally anywhere near that crazy.

Do you think nobody is showing AA here 60% of the time? Is that really what your gut tells you? I think 60% is a conservative estimate of what you require given the virtual certainty that there is an Ax hand (AK, AQ) if there's no AA, and the $EV you are all bleeding to the rest of the table simply by going allin 4 ways.

stripsqueez did UTG show AA or was it someone else?

[adanthar]

If they have AKs, QQ and TT, you've a 40% chance to quadruple up for an EV of +600. If it's AKo, it's 43% for +720. If you get lucky enough for AK to be in there with AQ/TT, you've 57% equity for +1280.

In the actual hand - a worst case scenario - he had 10% equity for -600. Change the AK to JJ and he only gives up 280.

Given all that, the break even point for not showing aces is substantially less than you think - way under 50%. I'm 95% sure it's not near this much at the $50 buyin. Admittedly, I don't play the 100's but I don't think it's such a huge difference.

[bugstud]

to nitpick, I think facing AA and 2 AK's is the worst case scenario

[ChrisV]

To nitpick further, facing AA and another KK is the worst situation [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
To nitpick further, facing AA and another KK is the worst situation [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

no, you can win with a QJT9 board there

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b...+Ks%0D%0AAc+Kc

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b...+Kc%0D%0AAc+As

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
stripsqueez did UTG show AA or was it someone else?

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty sure i gave them in order so initial pusher had AA, the BB AK and UTG had QQ - i would agree that UTG is perhaps the scariest call - when i reviewed some games on pokertracker recently from the $200 game i noticed several of the good players (in addition to the chooks) always open limped from the front with AA early

everybody had roughly the same stack sizes - i actually had something like T1030 and momentarily survived with T45

this comes down to how bad i think the other guys are - in the $100's there are always 2-3 push happy chooks early but when both the BB and UTG call it is prime AA territory - at least a good player isnt troubled to fold AK or QQ when someone pushes over the top of a pre-flop raiser at this stage of the game

to finish the result the flop was Q 5 Q

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[d1sterbd]

I have been in a similar situation in the first level of a $30 NLHE SNG. I had KK and someone went all in when there was only one limper before him. I called and he had AA. The major difference is that I wouldn't expect this to happen as much at a $100 table.