Amare Stoudamire - Fantasy NBA

[trevorwc]

I'm wondering when it's time to scoop this stud up.

Our league is a 12 team roto league. We have only 7 categories - points, reb, ast, steals, blocks, turnovers, 3 pointers made.

We have a 13 player roster (without an IL now that the NBA has dropped its IL) and will start 10 players (3G, 3F, 2C, 2Util)

We're doing an on-line draft over several days - and we're just starting the 7th round. I have the 5th pick - is it too early to nab him?

I guess in head-to-head, I know that if I could get myself in playoff position, I'd have a stud waiting for me - but I've never played roto, and don't know how much of a difference picking up a stud that late in the season would make?

FWIW, my first six picks are Duncan, Kidd, Bibby, Gasol, Rose, Korver.

HELP!!

[pokerdirty]

i would say don't do it, i'd let someone else waste a pick on him.

[trevorwc]

why?

[mmbt0ne]

Because no one really knows how he's going to perform coming back from this surgery. This is the same surgery that Penny, Mashburn, and Webber all had. None of them returned to the same level of play.

[ClassicBob]

I picked him up in the 10th round of a 10 team league. I was happy with it.

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]

Our league is a 12 team roto league.
We have a 13 player roster (without an IL now that the NBA has dropped its IL) and will start 10 players (3G, 3F, 2C, 2Util).


[/ QUOTE ]

Do NOT draft Amare, and even if you're gonna do something -EV but for the fun of nabbing a big name late, no way should you do it before the 9th round.

Amare is an enormously -EV play in your (and most) leagues. He's out for 70% of the season. Most players who have had that injury and surgery think he'll be out longer. Read: Chris Webber situation. You don't just return to your normal stats once you come back, as well. It takes time to get back up to par, and you're looking at least at a 20% production drop inititally. You would likely have a healthy Amare for less than 20% of the season.

With only a 3-man bench and no IL, you cannot afford to tank a spot and only have a 2-man bench. Other injuries will occur. If you do this, you are also passing up on +EV WW pickups. The first month, there are always studs who surprise from nowhere. Getting one of these can often be the difference between success and failure. Cutting your bench by a spot drastically reduces your chances of landing one.

If we did have IL slots, Amare would be draftable, and it could be debated how high to take him. As is, Amare is undraftable unless you think he heals as fast as Wolverine.

[llabb]

Oh, and the rest of your team is solid in a no %'s league. A little high on Rose, very nice on the rest, especially Gasol in the 4th.