Marginal hand #2 Play or no play - Page 6

grjr · #51 04-13-2005, 02:19 PM

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Yeah I've enjoyed both these threads, but they've each featured an extremely questionable early action that came up smelling like a rose with Hero hits his hand and Villain turns on the spigots.

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You didn't think I'd start out with the losers did you? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I understand where you guys are coming from but to me these two calls weren't questionable at all for the .50/1 level. If I'm wrong then I'm sure it will show up in my stats sooner or later.

grjr · #52 04-13-2005, 02:27 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, CO calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
MP2 bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls.

River: (16.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero ??

Ok, now I'm confused. The only thing that beats me is a better flush (which he could have the way he played the hand). There's about a 10% chance that someone was dealt 2 hearts with 1 or more higher than the jack. Do I go ahead and cap this or not since he's saying he doen't fear the flush?

jrz1972 · #53 04-13-2005, 02:32 PM

MP2 is LPP.

Assuming that read is pretty solid, I'm not capping this. In fact, when Villian 3-bets I'm regretting my decision to raise the river in the first place. If Villian were a post-flop aggressive I would be feeling much better about my chances here.

Firefly · #54 04-13-2005, 02:33 PM

Just call. You've basically said "I have a flush" and he's telling you "I don't care" either he thinks 3 of a kind beats a flush or he's got something like AK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Just call and if he's doing something donkish like AA or JJ, make a note and do better the next time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Aaron W. · #55 04-13-2005, 03:02 PM

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I guess I didn't express that well. The "more often than not" meant that that's usually what happens when you actually do hit the flop. Not that you actually hit the flop "more often than not". Does that make sense now?

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Yes, but no. About one-fourth as often as not do you actually hit your draw on the turn. You're dancing around with intuitive notions that simply aren't correct. And these are the things that lead to incorrect conclusions. It might be worth scouring around for some probability lessons, because it would do tremendous things to your understanding if you had a grasp of the mathematics in the background.

grjr · #56 04-13-2005, 03:04 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, CO calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
MP2 bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls.

River: (16.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 22.75 BB

Results in white below: 
MP2 has 8h 6c (two pair, eights and sixes).
Hero has 7h 9h (flush, jack high).
Outcome: Hero wins 22.75 BB. 

I thought I would catch some grief for wimping out on the river. At the time it sure felt like I was beaten. Check out what he had. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] Welcome to Party!

You can say I lucked out on this hand with all the extra action the donk gave me but if he hadn't 3-bet the flop I would have had 2 more callers along who might have caught something decent on the turn or river.

numeri · #57 04-13-2005, 03:08 PM

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MP2 has 8h 6c (two pair, eights and sixes)

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LPP?? Through how many hands? Obviously this hand changes that read. I rarely trust those reads even 75% unless I have at least 50 hand with the oponent.

EDIT: Good discussion, by the way.

grjr · #58 04-13-2005, 03:49 PM

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I guess I didn't express that well. The "more often than not" meant that that's usually what happens when you actually do hit the flop. Not that you actually hit the flop "more often than not". Does that make sense now?

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Yes, but no. About one-fourth as often as not do you actually hit your draw on the turn. You're dancing around with intuitive notions that simply aren't correct. And these are the things that lead to incorrect conclusions. It might be worth scouring around for some probability lessons, because it would do tremendous things to your understanding if you had a grasp of the mathematics in the background.

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I'm going to try to explain my thinking one more time then I'll let it go. You admitted you would call this hand with no raise but would not call if it was raised to you. I said I don't mind it being raised because I'll usually get more action post flop.

I gave a simulated hand where you call 3 limpers with the the 97s. FROM MY EXPERIENCE, when the hand is not raised preflop there's a good chance that you won't get any good action IF you do happen to hit a good flop. Here's an actual example:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 6d 8d (flush, jack high).
Outcome: Hero wins 7.75 BB. 

This is the type of hand you would call into. You don't risk as much up front but you don't win as much when you win. Now if you threw a preflop raiser in there I can almost guarantee there would be more action after the flop.

This is the reason I'm not afraid to call a raise with a 97s on the button. If nobody else here agrees with me that's fine but at least you can see there is a reason (valid or not) behind my actions.

I wonder if Ed Miller would call the original hand here.

grjr · #59 04-13-2005, 04:02 PM

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MP2 has 8h 6c (two pair, eights and sixes)

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LPP?? Through how many hands? Obviously this hand changes that read. I rarely trust those reads even 75% unless I have at least 50 hand with the oponent.

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40 hands on this opponent and his VS$IP was 67%. I think this may have been the only hand he raised on. He lost $41 in those 40 hands so he may have been tilting a tad.

I have to admit that I don't get a lot of good reads on opponents because I often don't hang around long enough to play that many hands with them. I feel (there's that word again) that at the .50/1 level reads are not ultra important. I'm sure as you move up in levels that changes quite a bit.

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EDIT: Good discussion, by the way.

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Thank you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

numeri · #60 04-13-2005, 04:07 PM

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I have to admit that I don't get a lot of good reads on opponents because I often don't hang around long enough to play that many hands with them. I feel (there's that word again) that at the .50/1 level reads are not ultra important. I'm sure as you move up in levels that changes quite a bit.

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It's hard for me to get any reads other than from PT. But I do think they're important even at my level. (0.05/0.10) It makes it easier to value bet the river looking at WTSD, and other decisions come easier based on how aggressive opponents have been.

For me, it's difficult because they come and go so quickly. If I'm on a good table with bad players, I'll stay until I get tired or have to leave.