KQo, implied odds enough to call the turn?

fire_fly · #1 03-31-2005, 10:06 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Just sat down, only reads on 1 guy and he was a 55 vpip, so that couldn't help narrow down his holdings...

Flop: (13 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Is this flop call too loose? I thought not, because I gave each overcard 1.5 outs, which makes it a 3 outer (backdoor strait might add a tad) So by my calculations, the pot was giving me 7.5:1 so for a 3 outer this is ok, no?

Turn: (9 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Again, I'm still counting this as a 3 outer, am I wrong in doing this? So the pot is giving me 11:1 but there are most likely 2 callers behind me, which would bump it up to 13:1, almost to the required 14:1 for a 3 outer, but I called giving myself implied odds here if I hit on the river. Is this a bad thing? I figured it wasn't going to happen often, but when I do hit I could collect 2, 3, or mabye even 4 bb when I bet and everyone calls on the river. So even if I still lost say a third or half the time, I would be recouping the 1 bb to call the turn bet by two or three or mabye four times when I do hit. You know, even hearing myself say this, it sounds like my reasoning is flawed, but I can't think of anyting better [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Any suggestions?

River: (14 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB

gopnik · #2 03-31-2005, 10:19 PM

I might have raised the flop to clear some out because the pot is very big. But I definitely would not fold. I'd call the turn too.

iluzion · #3 03-31-2005, 10:21 PM

if your counting it as a 3 outer, i fold.. if you give your self the full 6 outs to be ahead, then im calling that turn.

bozlax · #4 03-31-2005, 10:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
...the pot was giving me 7.5:1 so for a 3 outer this is ok, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

First off, the pot was giving you 15 to 1...you could call.

[ QUOTE ]
Again, I'm still counting this as a 3 outer, am I wrong in doing this? So the pot is giving me 11:1 but there are most likely 2 callers behind me, which would bump it up to 13:1, almost to the required 14:1 for a 3 outer, but I called giving myself implied odds here if I hit on the river. Is this a bad thing? I figured it wasn't going to happen often, but when I do hit I could collect 2, 3, or mabye even 4 bb when I bet and everyone calls on the river. So even if I still lost say a third or half the time, I would be recouping the 1 bb to call the turn bet by two or three or mabye four times when I do hit. You know, even hearing myself say this, it sounds like my reasoning is flawed, but I can't think of anyting better [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Any suggestions?

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes my head hurt...you're over-thinking, here. Go like this: "I don't have a read on SB, so he could be a nutjob that defended his 84o and I'm drawing dead. If he's playing AK or AQ, I'm also dead. Any outs I have aren't clean, and I've only put 3SB into this pot so far." Get out.

Of course, I'm a weak-tight disciple of Lee Jones...

fire_fly · #5 04-01-2005, 05:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I've only put 3SB into this pot so far." Get out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on man, you know this is irrelavent. Pot size is what matters here, not how much i've put in. Does this change things for you?

einbert · #6 04-01-2005, 05:40 AM

I fold the turn.

thesharpie · #7 04-01-2005, 05:45 AM

Fold the turn. You could be drawing dead, and even if you're not your [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] outs are likely dutty.

I would fold the flop if you didn't have the BDSD.

morberg · #8 04-01-2005, 09:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the turn. You could be drawing dead, and even if you're not your [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] outs are likely dutty.

I would fold the flop if you didn't have the BDSD.

[/ QUOTE ]

jaxUp · #9 04-01-2005, 09:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I would fold the flop if you didn't have the BDSD.

[/ QUOTE ]

At 15:1, I will call with 2 overs easily without a BDSD

Isura · #10 04-01-2005, 01:35 PM

Given your reasoning, I would fold the turn. Drawing to top pair does not have great implied odds on the river, and more likely your top pair makes an expensive second best hand.