World Series

Feltin Licter · #1 10-20-2005, 01:00 PM

I'm afraid this matchup will not offer the incredible edge bets we've had throughout the playoffs. I don't remember any postseason being as profitable as this one for dog betters....

Anyone see some edge here that I'm missing???

gomberg · #2 10-20-2005, 01:12 PM

No - it looks like it's over now - the line looks about right. Man, that was a fun ride - I still can't believe the lines that existed for the past 3 weeks.

mrbaseball · #3 10-20-2005, 01:15 PM

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I don't remember any postseason being as profitable as this one for dog betters....

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This has been a good one. Real good [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] The 2003 Marlins run was extra juicy too.

But I think you are right and that the gravy train ends here. Neither team is hyped and neither team has strong national following. It should be a great series dominated by pitching. The series is basically a pick 'em and each individual game should be about a pick'em, Lines show White Sox slight favs for series and game one. Dead even coinflips are probably fair.

I won't be playing this series much at all but as a fan will not miss a pitch. +1.5 runlines could be interesting in this series depending on the prices.

Feltin Licter · #4 10-20-2005, 01:48 PM

What price would you need on the +1 1/2 runline if you viewed the game as a coinflip?

mrbaseball · #5 10-20-2005, 01:59 PM

Depends on matchup, home/away etc. but as a rule of thumb for these 2 teams if you can get +1.5 in the -150/-160 range or better it's likely decent edge.

If it's a pure coinflip you would expect the +1.5 to come into play about 13% of the time. Maybe moreso for the home team and less often for the roadies but typically in the 12-14% area.

gomberg · #6 10-20-2005, 01:56 PM

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I won't be playing this series much at all but as a fan will not miss a pitch

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As will I. This place isn't as crazy as it was in 2003 when the cubs were making a run, but it's still great to have a world series in chi-town for the first time in my life. The real question is whether or not to spend $1k+ for tickets to one of the games... I could just use the money I won betting against St. Louis [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Go Sox!

Feltin Licter · #7 10-20-2005, 02:02 PM

I still don't know how they could give me Oswalt at this price...

Sport / Period: MLB Baseball / Game
Line:
Houston Astros 10/19/2005 8:25:01 PM - EST
+144
Pitchers: Roy Oswalt - R - Must Pitch Mark Mulder -L - Must Pitch

mrbaseball · #8 10-20-2005, 02:15 PM

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still don't know how they could give me Oswalt at this price

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Too bad it wasn't the Yankees with Johnson pitching you woulda got +200 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Playoff lines are typically the juiciest of the year because so much fan (ie clueless) money is involved. But yeah when they gave Oswalt another juicy line (like in game 2 where he dealt filth) you just gotta thank the ESPN generation and bet as much as you are comfortable with.

mrbaseball · #9 10-20-2005, 02:09 PM

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The real question is whether or not to spend $1k+ for tickets

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I just gave away my game one tickets. Everyone is telling me I'm nuts for not wanting to go. I realize it's probably a once in a lifetime chance. I keep telling myself I should really want to go. But I just hate going to major sporting events. The traffic in (and especially out) is a bitch. The seats are uncomfortable and it's supposed to be 50 and rainy.

All I know is I got 'em this far from my Lazyboy (although I did go to a couple games this year) and with luck I may just be able to get 'em all the way. Those couple of games reminded me of why I hate going to major sporting events.

I thought long and hard about not going and for me I am certain it is the right decision. Plus if I was at the game I wouldn't be able to hear Joe Buck. Hmmm? Maybe it wasn't such a good move afterall?

DougOzzzz · #10 10-20-2005, 01:33 PM

I would lean slightly towards the White Sox line here. I believe the public is slightly overrating the top 3 pitchers of the Astros and the ChiSox hold slight advantages in defense, and offense while the pitching is roughly equal. The line is pretty close to fair though, and I probably won't be betting it either way. If forced to place a bet on either side I would take Chicago though.