Finally figured out AK in early rounds....

[gildwulf]

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OK, so someone run THAT calculation:P


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It's really not that bad; use dethgrind's calculator for the PPE calculation.

http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html

Then you have to do about 8 multiplications and three additions. The hardest part is actually determining the probability of winning and losing; you can use pokerstove for that.

Of course, that's why SnGPT is worth money, because it does all of this for you.

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Multiplication?? Addition?!?!? I'm all...out

[tminus]

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You are going to make any small pair fold

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read carefully, i said "split pair", alot of these guys will call your preflop raise with Kx Qx AQ and call bets because they paired one of there cards....its a great opportunity really

so much more room to play real poker on the flop and turn with this hand as opposed to pushing

[Shillx]

FWIW I like pushing here. I was just trying to point out that racing early on isn't something that you should get excited about. If UTG pushed all-in on the 1st hand with 77 UTG (he turns his hand face up), you would be crazy to call him with AK in the BB after everyone else passes.

Let's go back to the example where UTG pops it to T85, gets a coldcaller and you push AKo OTB. If you can take the pot down right there 50% of the time and race the other 50% you are looking at an EV of...

Race against 77 = 8.8% $EV (T1710 if you win)
Everyone folds = 12.2% $EV (T995)

Net = 10.5% $EV

Now it becomes a worthwhile proposition. There are however many other factors that you need to include.

a) Someone behind you finds a hand (namely AA/KK/AK) and kills your equity
b) One of the players already in the pot has AA or KK
c) You get called in multiple spots thus killing your overlay
d) Someone calls you with a dominated hand like AQ

Since (d) figures to be the most likely scenario here, I think it is worth gambling to try and double up as a 3:1 favorite (though I don't find pushing with AKo to be a total winfall).

Brad

[gildwulf]

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FWIW I like pushing here. I was just trying to point out that racing early on isn't something that you should get excited about. If UTG pushed all-in on the 1st hand with 77 UTG (he turns his hand face up), you would be crazy to call him with AK in the BB after everyone else passes.

Let's go back to the example where UTG pops it to T85, gets a coldcaller and you push AKo OTB. If you can take the pot down right there 50% of the time and race the other 50% you are looking at an EV of...

Race against 77 = 8.8% $EV (T1710 if you win)
Everyone folds = 12.2% $EV (T995)

Net = 10.5% $EV

Now it becomes a worthwhile proposition. There are however many other factors that you need to include.

a) Someone behind you finds a hand (namely AA/KK/AK) and kills your equity
b) One of the players already in the pot has AA or KK
c) You get called in multiple spot thus killing your overlay
d) Someone calls you with a dominated hand like AQ

Since (d) figures to be the most likely scenario here, I think it is worth gambling to try and double up as a 3:1 favorite (though I don't find pushing with AKo to be a total winfall).

Brad

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This is exactly what I was trying to say but I'm a dumbass. Reply OTM.

[Ixnert]

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c) You get called in multiple spots thus killing your overlay
d) Someone calls you with a dominated hand like AQ

Since (d) figures to be the most likely scenario here, I think it is worth gambling to try and double up as a 3:1 favorite (though I don't find pushing with AKo to be a total winfall).

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I'm not too worried about (c) either. The most likely scenarios there:

1) I'm getting called by a pair and a lower ace. I lose a bit of equity, but I've still got odds for the (now 50% larger) pot (AKo-AQo-77, I'm about 34-35% to triple up, not great, but any dead money in the pot makes it a bit more comfortable).
2) I'm getting called by two pairs. A bit better off here (AKo-JJ-77, I'm about 36%).

More importantly, I'm better off in either case than against a single pair (45-55 dog) relative to the pot size/odds. So provided I don't see AA/KK, I'm definitely happy to see another caller in this situation.

[Isura]

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FWIW I like pushing here. I was just trying to point out that racing early on isn't something that you should get excited about. If UTG pushed all-in on the 1st hand with 77 UTG (he turns his hand face up), you would be crazy to call him with AK in the BB after everyone else passes.

Let's go back to the example where UTG pops it to T85, gets a coldcaller and you push AKo OTB. If you can take the pot down right there 50% of the time and race the other 50% you are looking at an EV of...

Race against 77 = 8.8% $EV (T1710 if you win)
Everyone folds = 12.2% $EV (T995)

Net = 10.5% $EV

Now it becomes a worthwhile proposition. There are however many other factors that you need to include.

a) Someone behind you finds a hand (namely AA/KK/AK) and kills your equity
b) One of the players already in the pot has AA or KK
c) You get called in multiple spots thus killing your overlay
d) Someone calls you with a dominated hand like AQ

Since (d) figures to be the most likely scenario here, I think it is worth gambling to try and double up as a 3:1 favorite (though I don't find pushing with AKo to be a total winfall).

Brad

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Good points. At the Parth 11s and 22s I think this is a hugely +EV push. Another point to consider is the value of doubling up for a you, vs for a weak player. For a weak player, doubling up here isn't such a great thing, he will leak away his stack on expensive draws and 2nd best hands down the line. But for a solid player, having a deeper stack at a party sng is a huge advantage with blind stealing, and manouvering postflop. Although ICM says that doubling up with 10 players left will almost double your tourney equity (About 1.85 i believe), I would estimate that for a good $20 player, it's closer to about 2.2-2.3.

[uphigh_downlow]

Did not read through most of the posts, but I believe that its not a great play.

I believe you will lose TE in the long run with this play.

Simple reason is this. lets imagine you get folded to 70% of the times and dbl up 20% of the time and bust out 10% of the time.

tweak the numbers if you wish, plot a graph of TE vs each of the variables, if you want. Are you seeing a +ve TE at any point.

I havent done the numbers, but from a casual look, i would doubt it

However such a play can create an +ve image for you that will help you out and cannot be accouned for with numbers.

To each his own.

[uphigh_downlow]

i did not completely follow how you did the math, but are you talking in terms of Chip Equity.

If so, its fine, but what about TE?

10.2% +CEV surely seems like a losing proposition.
Can you explain a little. I'm interested in knowing your line of thinking, although I dont quite agree with it yet.

[SCfuji]

how do you bully people. usually when i hit a big hand early on i just tend to stay quiet and slide into the bubble and the money with continuing conservative play.