100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...

[Fallen Hero]

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So we think UTG must have a set here?

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we think a bing range of what he calls with (and we beat) he also bets on this kind of board. What beats us doesn't get to raise a big river bet.

As for a busted draw there aren't a ton of draws on the flop. Of course any ace has a gutshot straight draw and if he paired his low kicker that might make some sense. No flush draw and the other logical draw 67 made the straight on the river. He could have the overpair, that's good. And he could have something like trip 4s (a4) or a set (22,55,88) or straight (a3).

After he called a 4/5 pot bet on the flop and a 3/5 pot bet on the turn, I would be a little more cautious on that board on the river. But that's my style. I might bet 1/4-1/3 pot on the river. There's no obvious top pair for your opponent to call along with.

As played I would be calling the min raise on the river even though it is likely your beat. At that point your getting 1 to 4 pot odds. And maybe he's got QQ or something. You only have to win 1 in 5 times for you to come out equal at the point you make that decision.

This is also my style: I like to keep my bets about 1/2 pot when I only have one pair. This is enought to protect your hand from primary draws and not give up too much pot equity. That way you don't build up a pot and lose your entire stack with only one pair. Even when you have kings and they are higher than any card on the board its still only one pair. (well technically 2 pair on this board but you know what I mean) Plus you get some weaker hands to call along when you bet 1/2 pot. Also you can make bluffs or bet mediocre hands at 1 pot to get more hands to fold, and bet your monsters at 1 pot bets to build the pot.

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This is also my style: I like to keep my bets about 1/2 pot when I only have one pair. This is enought to protect your hand from primary draws and not give up too much pot equity. That way you don't build up a pot and lose your entire stack with only one pair. Even when you have kings and they are higher than any card on the board its still only one pair. (well technically 2 pair on this board but you know what I mean) Plus you get some weaker hands to call along when you bet 1/2 pot. Also you can make bluffs or bet mediocre hands at 1 pot to get more hands to fold, and bet your monsters at 1 pot bets to build the pot.

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It should be noted that what he does is fine HU, but don't do it against multiple opponents.

[Fallen Hero]

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I like to keep my bets about 1/2 pot when I only have one pair. This is enought to protect your hand from primary draws and not give up too much pot equity.

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Wrong, this is not even close to being enough to protect your hand.


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Plus you get some weaker hands to call along when you bet 1/2 pot. Also you can make bluffs or bet mediocre hands at 1 pot to get more hands to fold, and bet your monsters at 1 pot bets to build the pot.

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if the size of your bets gives away the strength of your hands even throwing in stone cold bluffs won't help you much, your hand will be clear.

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Wrong, this is not even close to being enough to protect your hand.


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You give him 1:3 pot odds when you bet 1/2 the pot. An opponent is about 1:4.9 to hit a straight (8 outs) and 1:4.2 to hit a flush (9 outs) on the turn. You'll be keeping an eye on reads so you don't pay him off too much when he hits, so you keep his implied odds down.

That's my reasoning for it being enough to protect your hand. I'd be interested to hear why you think it is inadequate.

[Fallen Hero]

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Wrong, this is not even close to being enough to protect your hand.


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You give him 1:3 pot odds when you bet 1/2 the pot. An opponent is about 1:4.9 to hit a straight (8 outs) and 1:4.2 to hit a flush (9 outs) on the turn. You'll be keeping an eye on reads so you don't pay him off too much when he hits, so you keep his implied odds down.

That's my reasoning for it being enough to protect your hand. I'd be interested to hear why you think it is inadequate.

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Calculate how much your opponent will need to extract from you when he hits to have correct odds. Now tell me how you're going to keep him from winning that ammount (tip: it's really small) without check-folding tptk everytime a scare card comes

[wall_st]

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Wrong, this is not even close to being enough to protect your hand.


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You give him 1:3 pot odds when you bet 1/2 the pot. An opponent is about 1:4.9 to hit a straight (8 outs) and 1:4.2 to hit a flush (9 outs) on the turn. You'll be keeping an eye on reads so you don't pay him off too much when he hits, so you keep his implied odds down.

That's my reasoning for it being enough to protect your hand. I'd be interested to hear why you think it is inadequate.

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This type of bet is inadaquate simply because you lose a lot of value assuming that your opponent is calling you with an inferior holding (ignore river context, let's pretend he really did call down with 99), since cash games are all about extracing the maximum amount of value from each hand, betting half the pot would decrease your winnings.

Yes, I see your point. Where I play if your getting your pot bets called on multiple streets they usually have more than one pair.

Well I figure the opponent can't count on always getting a call later on every after making his hand, because your not going to bet 1/2 the pot all the time with a hand. Some might just be ace high continuation bets or marginal hands where your opponent doesn't have implied odds.

In the better scenario for example you bet $1 into a $2 pot on the turn. He needs 1:4.9 pot odds. So he needs $1.9 in your future bets. He calls and makes his hand. Pot is now $4. He needs to bet more than 1/2 the pot and get a call and win to make a profit on that decision on the river.

Flush would be $1.2. That's less than 1/3 the pot on the river. It's easier to spot a flush on the board. But I see your point.

I'm deffinetely calling this river raise. I probably would have played it the same way as you did, but with the mini raise on river it looks like you're beat. But hope for QQ-TT and call it. You've got the odds.