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| View Poll Results: 4 vs. 13 | |||
| Bob Costas |
   
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16 | 15.69% |
| Joe Buck |
  
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86 | 84.31% |
| Voters: 102. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#1
12-11-2005, 08:51 PM
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Re: Being hot vs being due
[ QUOTE ]
the correct answer (if it's possible that the coin is not fair) is switch to tails, because you have slightly more evidence that the coin is biased toward tails than toward heads. [/ QUOTE ] True, unless you suspect your friend of selectively unbalancing the coin. Then you'd be foolish to switch, because he offered you the switch, which must mean he's confident he can switch it back. Other than subtleties of cheating at coin-flipping, this topic is a waste of disk space. 
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#2
12-09-2005, 05:08 PM
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Re: Being hot vs being due
There's an old saying in finance that finding a consistent loser is as good as finding a consistent winner since you can just short the loser's strategy. Basically, do what you want, homiehomie, I'll take the other side.
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#3
12-09-2005, 05:19 PM
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Follow up question
If you were the other guy, would you be more or less inclined to switch?
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#5
12-10-2005, 01:57 PM
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Re: Follow up question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you were the other guy, would you be more or less inclined to switch? [/ QUOTE ] This is the same question as the OP. [/ QUOTE ] not neccessarily because the other guy has been on the winning end.
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#6
12-09-2005, 05:29 PM
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Re: Being hot vs being due
I wouldn't believe in either of the thoughts provided, but I would switch to tails. It seems to matter to my friend. If I then go on a rush with tails, I may be able to convince her that it's her fault, put her on tilt, and then cause her to take a -EV gamble. Sort of like Party BJ.
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#7
12-10-2005, 09:22 AM
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Re: Being hot vs being due
being "due" is a gamblers fallacy, and it really doesn't make a difference if you switch, assuming the coin is fair.
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#8
12-10-2005, 02:09 PM
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Re: Being hot vs being due
Terrible poll design. I must vote to see the results, and neither choice represents my belief.
Both positions are fallacies; your poll presumes that polltakers must subscribe to either one or the other, and leaves no room for polltakers who subscribe to neither.
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#10
12-11-2005, 07:14 AM
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Re: Being hot vs being due
I'm still amazed that people are actually are sticking with heads more than switching to tails. The chances that this coin is perfectly fair is growing smaller and smaller and it is much more likely that the coin is biased toward tails.
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