30/60: Botched river?

[Robb]

UTG 2 is in his first orbit and unknown to me. I didn't notice anything at all about his first 7 hands so I believe my question is somewhat watered down. In those 7 hands I haven't played a hand so he probably doesn't have much of a read on me besides mined stats. Anyhoo....

Party 30/60 10 Handed
UTG & UTG2 limp, I raise next with AA. BB and limpers call.

Flop: AKQ rainbow.
3 checks - I bet, BB and UTG2 call.

Turn: 8 completing rainbow
Check check - I bet, BB calls UTG2 check raises. BB folds. I 3 bet UTG2 4 bets.

River: 7
UTG2 bets. Am I leaving money on the table by not raising the river once against the average/unknown 30 player?

[highlife]

I can come up with 2 hands he might play that way JT and 88, possibly A8 although I doubt a reasonable player would cap with that holding.

If he has 88 (or A8) you will only get one bet out of him, but if he has JT, he will 3bet, and you will lose two bets.

Just call.

[Robb]

Exactly. I'm not leaving anything on the table by not raising. Which is why I was disappointed I made the wrong call.

I must have just lost focus because this isn't a difficult hand reading exercise -- I didn't see my opponent's perspective to derive his likely holding. This failure is a function of multi-tabling, but I still should have made the correct read. Only very LA players would 4 bet a preflop raiser on the turn with A8. Equally unlikely is that someone calls the flop with 88 or doesn't raise a limper preflop limper with AQ/AK, but then goes off with them against a likely set (my hand). Not impossible of course, but J10 is highly likely.

So I raised the river and paid off the re-raise to see J10.

[imashyboi]

I think you need to slow down when he made it 4x on the TURN. You have to realize that once someone makes it 4x on the TURN your either way ahead or beat. Unless the guy is reckless and is willing to cap with a draw or just top pair then raising the river for value is something you have to do. Seems like the player is pretty typical, I'm calling as well.

[flawless_victory]

raising the river here is real dumb.

[JasonP530]

after you 3 bet the turn, he can read you for top two or a flopped set and doesnt care. I dont think he would cap and lead with 88.

[Senor Choppy]

It's always JT here.

[Robb]

Agreed. That's why I posted it. Thought it might be helpful to some. See my response to highlife.

[etizzle]

i would rather fold here than raise.