5/10 Commerce Top Two Pair, draw heavy board

[elena_elphie]

I have about $900, Villian #1 has about $1000, Villains #2 and #3 are shortstacked with about $250 each.

6 limpers to me, I check w/ 87o in the BB. Pot $70.

Flop comes 874 w/ two clubs. I lead out for $45. Villian #1 calls, he would call a bet on the flop w/ as little as bottom pair. Two folds, villain #2 minraise to 90, and villain #3 calls. Both are players I don't know much about, but they seem fairly weak and could have anything from a straight, to a flush draw to top pair.

I am willing to go allin against the shortstacks, but don't want to stack off against villain #1 if he has me beat. At the same time I'd like to push him off a draw. So I raise to 300. Villain #1 quickly goes allin, and villains 2 and 3 fold. I fold too, thinking villain #1 would not make this move w/o a set or straight (he seems to flat call all his draws). Is this good? Is there a better line?

[Jeebus]

This kinda looks like a semi-bluff/steal to me and here's why...
1.You bet over half the pot on a draw heavy board. That screams I have a big hand but its not the best hand please just call and I hope the turn is a blank.
2.Short stacks have both put in 100 of their 250 or so. They are pretty well pot committed at this point. If they call he risks 1/4 of his stack to get a return of 1/2 of his current stack (plus what he put in)
3.He raises all in rather than a big enough raise to force the short stacks all in but let you stay in. Obviously he just wants you to play with him.

With all this in mind, I probalby still fold. I don't feel like thinking enough to come up with the probablilities and all that jazz but I would htink you are at best 50% to win the hand and at worst possibly drawing to 4 outs.

[tdomeski]

Given your flop raise to $300 and his push, I think you have to fold. .

I think you are most likely have the best hand against the two short stacks. The problem is if one of them is semibluffing a draw and the other is calling on a draw then you have to deal with the times you get all in with both of them and one of them sucks out. Not to mention the dude with more than you left to act. This may seem pretty weak but I think you can fold here and really not be too bad in the long run. This is when if you could get any kind of tell on the guy behind you that would be really helpful.

You can also flat call. Only problem is if the dude behind you flat calls than you have 3 guys in a pot with most likely two drawing and you have no clue what the two are drawing towards so it gets sticky on a lot of turns.

Here is a sim. of a possible combo of hands from the short stacks. . . .

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1079326
pokenum -h 7d 8s - 5c ac - 9h th -- 7c 4c 8h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 7c 4c 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 7d 390 43.19 513 56.81 0 0.00 0.432
Ac 5c 307 34.00 596 66.00 0 0.00 0.340
Th 9h 206 22.81 697 77.19 0 0.00 0.228

I mean if you get all in with them you still lose the pot over half the time.

This is a hand that is easier played if you have a strong understanding and background in the game of Omaha as this type of situation comes up a lot.

[MTBlue]

I like the way you played the hand. The only thing I think might be better is to raise to 225 or 250. It accomplishes the same thing with the short stacks and saves you 50 bucks when villian#1 comes over the top.

[elena_elphie]

It turns out villain #1 did have a straight, he showed it after I folded. He didn't seem like the semi-bluffing type, and he really didn't have a reasonable reraise other than allin, so I didn't necessarily read the allin as weak.

[rwperu34]

If I was planning to fold to a push (whick I would be), I'd just flat call. This way if villian is on a draw, he'd be getting such good odds with so little folding equity vs the short stacks, he'd be more apt to call. If it gets ugly on the turn, you fold. You would fold to an ugly turn card regardless, so I don't see the value of putting in the extra raise.