was i too aggressive with these kings?

Adam22 · #1 11-18-2005, 02:16 AM

villain has tag stats

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, Hero caps, SB calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

cpk · #2 11-18-2005, 02:20 AM

stizzandard

einbert · #3 11-18-2005, 02:21 AM

I think the way you played it is correct.

#4 11-18-2005, 03:03 AM

Looks great. Villain realizes his AQs is no good on turn, crying calls river?

Adam22 · #5 11-18-2005, 04:30 AM

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Looks great. Villain realizes his AQs is no good on turn, crying calls river?

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you're good. i was scared carpless he was going to flip over AA, thinking i had QQ.

silkyslim · #6 11-18-2005, 03:10 AM

this seems fine. so with the preflop, flop and turn action i put SB on AA, KK, AQ. thoughts on this range?

Nick Royale · #7 11-18-2005, 01:09 PM

I have to say I think all posters are wrong.

AA: 6 combos
KK: 1 combo (but I won't consider this since it's a split anyway and we're going to a sd here)
QQ: 3 combos
AQ: 6 combos (discounted from 12, OOP against a tag raising 2 players from MP3 3-betting AQ isn't such a good idea IMO)
JJ: 6 combos
TT: 3 combos (discounted from 6)
The chance of being up against KQ is compensated by the risk of villain holding 99.

When he check/raises the flop I think all of these hands still are likely. I think the standard tag is slightly more likely to do it with AQ than JJ/TT, while I'm more inclined to do it with JJ/TT. An argument could be made for going into WA/WB-mode, but I want to discuss this turn after a flop 3-bet first.

At the turn when he bets, which are his likely holdings? I would like to narrow it to AQ/AA/QQ. I somehow get the feeling this bet smells a little more like AQ being played in confusion than AA/QQ. But at the same time, overall, players are more likely to bet their strong holdings. And betting AQ would be a stupid thing to do and we're not dealing with a nutcase here. So if we're only looking at this from a hand distrubution perpective (I think that's the best way to evaluate this situation) we're only ahead 40% of the time here making a raise awfull.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qd 9s 6s 3c

Hand 1: 33.2792 % { KcKs }
Hand 2: 66.7208 % { AA, QQ, AQs, AhQc, AsQc }

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And our equity is only ~33%.

Now to the going into WA/WB-mode on the flop. You could argue the 2 spades foils this that plan, but there's only one reasonable hand villain could hold giving him a fd (AQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). I actually like going into WA/WB-mode, a better hand won't get the opportunty to cap or check/raise us on the turn, which would suck. Besides we earn more when he has JJ/TT:

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qd 9s 6s

Hand 1: 89.6717 % { KcKs }
Hand 2: 10.3283 % { JJ-TT }

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With x being the chance of him calling down with JJ/TT anyway:
2*2*0.9 - (8.5*2 + 2*2)*0.05 - (1 + 2*2)x = 2.55 - 5x
5x = 2.55 ---> x = 51%

Thus, if he folds JJ/TT more than 51% on the turn because we 3-betted the flop we'll make a profit against JJ/TT, which I believe a TAG will. This along with the fact that we're not in such a good shape on the flop as we might think (actually only 60% equity against the range of hands I have put him on) makes the calldown fro the flop check/raise to seem easy.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qd 9s 6s

Hand 1: 60.0894 % { KcKs }
Hand 2: 39.9106 % { AA, QQ-TT, AQs, AhQc, AsQc }

[/ QUOTE ]

einbert · #8 11-18-2005, 02:30 PM

When I first read the hand I was extremely tired and gave a quick and dirty analysis in my mind before collapsing asleep. At that time I had a fairly strong suspicion that raising the turn was wrong. I think Nick Royale's analysis confirms that suspicion.

In any event the turn is probably pretty close between a raise and a call. But a call is probably better as Nick demonstrated mathematically.

cpk · #9 11-18-2005, 06:09 PM

I appreciate the thought you put into this post, but I think you're being too conservative in discounting AQ. Even if the possibilities are just AQ/QQ/AA/KK, that's still 12.5:9.5, which is a 57% edge. That makes raising razor-thin, but not wrong, as few people will fold any of these hands.

Just because you wouldn't play AQ in this way doesn't mean that everyone takes that approach. Lots of people do. And God bless them.

Nick Royale · #10 11-18-2005, 10:11 PM

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I appreciate the thought you put into this post

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I appreciate the thought you didn't put into this post as it might educate others.

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but I think you're being too conservative in discounting AQ. Even if the possibilities are just AQ/QQ/AA/KK, that's still 12.5:9.5, which is a 57% edge. That makes raising razor-thin, but not wrong, as few people will fold any of these hands.

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You need an equity >60% to raise and even if you consider the possibility of the tag raising AQ the same as him as him raising AA you don't get an equity greater than 60%. And assuming he'll reraise AQ as often as AA preflop is ridiculous. He has tagish stats and a good tag wouldn't 3-bet AQ.

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Just because you wouldn't play AQ in this way doesn't mean that everyone takes that approach. Lots of people do. And God bless them.

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That's why I assume 50% of the tags still will 3-bet AQ here preflop even though it's wrong. I think that's an overestimate big enough.