Do you ever try to "dodge" variance?

PuppyKicker · #1 11-27-2004, 02:38 AM

Hello all,

Longtime lurker, firsttime poster. Does anyone here ever try to dodge variance by quitting when they're ahead? I ask because I am looking at my regular online games right now, and they are all SO soft (it being Friday night and all), but I just went on a rush and won 50BB in about an hour. So I quit, putting me miles ahead for the day with minimal effort.

I know that I should keep playing (I'm a 3.5BB/100 winning player), and I did for a while after my big wins, but the cards were cold and I just sort of felt like I wanted to dodge the (inevitable?) downturn.

Anyways, it's goofy and irrational, but does anyone else ever try to sneak away before the poker gods balance things out?

daryn · #2 11-27-2004, 02:42 AM

what's the difference if you keep playing, or stop and continue playing tomorrow? your next hand is just your next hand. realize that.

PuppyKicker · #3 11-27-2004, 02:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
what's the difference if you keep playing, or stop and continue playing tomorrow? your next hand is just your next hand. realize that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess I knew this would be the first response.

I've been playing poker for 10 years. I know this. I'm asking a lightheated question about when the itch to dodge a lightningbolt irrationally hits me. Why is everyone always so deadly serious here?

stinkypete · #4 11-27-2004, 02:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
what's the difference if you keep playing, or stop and continue playing tomorrow? your next hand is just your next hand. realize that.

[/ QUOTE ]

who says there has to be a next hand? quitting (permanently) is a very effective way of dodging variance.

pudley4 · #5 11-27-2004, 02:46 AM

How do you know that you were just about to hit a losing streak?

If you're a winning player, the probability that you were about to hit a 25BB winning streak is greater than the probability you were about to hit a 25BB losing streak. So you just cost yourself money.

PuppyKicker · #6 11-27-2004, 02:48 AM

Sigh, forget I even asked. I should have known better than to expect anyone on here to do anything but give me advice (pedantic advice at that) about something like this. It's like you're telling me the sky is blue--I know it's blue already.

Can't you just play along and not be such know-it-all apple polishers for once?

daryn · #7 11-27-2004, 02:56 AM

<blockquote>In risposta di:<hr />
<blockquote>In risposta di:<hr />
what's the difference if you keep playing, or stop and continue playing tomorrow? your next hand is just your next hand. realize that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess I knew this would be the first response.

I've been playing poker for 10 years. I know this. I'm asking a lightheated question about when the itch to dodge a lightningbolt irrationally hits me. Why is everyone always so deadly serious here?

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, i just like to provide correct info.

Pepsquad · #8 11-27-2004, 02:56 AM

Haha. I like your attitude Puppy, but I think your getting your answer whether you realize it or not. The answer is "no". You sound like a winning player and as a winner you know that irrational thoughts have no business at the poker table.

PuppyKicker · #9 11-27-2004, 03:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Haha. I like your attitude Puppy, but I think your getting your answer whether you realize it or not. The answer is "no". You sound like a winning player and as a winner you know that irrational thoughts have no business at the poker table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah well, it's also irrational to pay a couple of ladies $500 to double team you, but ... actually I don't know where I was going with that.

Suffice to say I know that the sky is blue and how much a stripper sandwich'll cost ya.

daryn · #10 11-27-2004, 03:01 AM

<blockquote>In risposta di:<hr />
Sigh, forget I even asked. I should have known better than to expect anyone on here to do anything but give me advice (pedantic advice at that) about something like this. It's like you're telling me the sky is blue--I know it's blue already.

Can't you just play along and not be such know-it-all apple polishers for once?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't get it. are you asking us to play dumb? ok, i'm game.

most people, when they're running cold, ask for a setup change (for B&M poker that is). this is just about the stupidest thing you can do. what if the cards were just about to turn hot? now you got a deck of smoking hot cards just sitting in the chip tray you dumbass! the best thing to do in this situation is to stick with the original deck, but make sure to have the dealer "wash" the cards. it's the only way.

if you're talking about online poker, well here's a little trick i learned. say you seem to be catching 1 good card, then 1 bad card. like you catch a nice looking K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but then it's followed by a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. i have found the solution for this. what you do (after you've changed the deck color to green obviously) is, when you're dealt the first card, if it's a good one, you cover it up with a window. the easiest one to use is the options window that pops up when you click the dealer's chip tray. anyways, you cover the hand up with that options box before you are dealt the 2nd card. now when it's your turn to act, you slowly move the options box until you can see your 1 good card. then you again slowly move it, effectively "squeezing out" your other card. you will then find that you have been dealt a good hand.

these two methods are foolproof.