JJ with one overcard

wuarhg · #1 11-04-2004, 10:56 AM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

zram21 · #2 11-04-2004, 11:52 AM

Raise the turn. MP3's play here is pretty consistent with how many players in the party 1/2 game would proceed with just a 2 or any pocket pair. It's not likely he has AA or KK. And being that there are 3 Qs on the board it isnt likely he has a Q either especially since he only called your flop raise.

If he 3-bets you on the turn I would probably think about calling down from there unless I had a read that he is likely to keep firing with a worse hand than mine.

TheHip41 · #3 11-04-2004, 11:54 AM

That's how I'd play it. If he has a Q, you are done. If not, let him bluff his chips at you.

davelin · #4 11-04-2004, 11:58 AM

I'd raise the river. I'm confident that he doesn't have the other Q over 50% of the time.

Entity · #5 11-04-2004, 12:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise the river. I'm confident that he doesn't have the other Q over 50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's have to be 66% of the time here, but I think I'd raise the river as well.

Rob

zram21 · #6 11-04-2004, 12:30 PM

So are you saying just call the turn and then raise the river? Do you raise regardless of what card falls or only raise if it is a J or below? I guess I am wondering if we think hero has the best hand now why we don;t try to build the pot on the turn?

davelin · #7 11-04-2004, 12:34 PM

Because if we raise on the turn, we may scare off a possible bluffer/much worse hand.

akh911007 · #8 11-04-2004, 02:47 PM

But we still have a chance at being outdrawn by a K or A. Shouldnt we raise to protect our hand?

Entity · #9 11-04-2004, 02:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But we still have a chance at being outdrawn by a K or A. Shouldnt we raise to protect our hand?

[/ QUOTE ]
You have such a minimal chance of being outdraw here by an A or a K (6 outs; approximately 12%) that it's worth risking that to continue to let a bluffer (or someone holding A2) bet again, and raise the river.

Rob

meep_42 · #10 11-04-2004, 03:05 PM

Assume: Villain does not have a Q.
Assume: Villain has one A or K and a blank.
Assume: Villain will call a turn raise and check the river if he misses or hits. Villain will bet if not raised on the turn.

Villain is drawing to 3 outs (he will fold to a river bet/raise if he misses).

39 of 45 times: Villain will miss his draw to the A or K.
If Hero raises the turn, Hero wins 2 BB. (the bet/call of the turn raise)
If Hero calls the turn, raises the river, Hero wins 2 BB (the bets on the turn/river)

3 of 45 times: Villain makes his A or K
If Hero raises the turn, Hero loses 2 BB (the raise, folds the river)
If Hero calls the turn, Hero loses 1.5 BB (fold the river sometimes, read dependant)

3 of 45 times, Villain pairs his kicker
If Hero raises the turn, Hero makes 2BB on the turn, and 3 BB on the river (average between calling a raise/3-bet/cap) for 5 BB.
If Hero raises the river, Hero makes 1BB on the turn and 3 BB on the river for 4 total.

Raise the turn: (39/45)*2+(3/45)*-2+(3/45)*5=1.73+-.133+.333
==+1.93BB
Raise the river: (39/45)*2+(3/45)*-1.5+(3/45)*4=1.73+-.1+.27
==+1.9BB

So, they're about even, raising the river becomes less profitable the more times you call when an A or K hits the river.

-d