late in multi..how long do you wait

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In this exact spot, I'm pushing pairs, an ace, two broadway cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd *much* rather push this Q9 than A2-A5. I think A2-A5 (and probably A6, maybe A7) are easy mucks here, since you will be about a 3-1 dog against any hand that calls. With Q9, you could easily be a coinflip against a pair, a 2-1 dog against AK, or a 3-2ish dog against something like AT (a little worse) or A8 (a little better).

I agree with pushing any pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure about this. Since everyone knows you could be pushing with anything you are likely to be called with KJ, QJ or K9, etc. I would rather have A5 than Q9 here. At least with A5 you COULD possibly be ahead. With Q9, you're definitely behind. I mean, is Q8 or 10J gonna call you? I'd pass on Q9 here and hope for a better spot...particularly if this is late in a multi when you could possibly move up in the money after another hand or 2. But it's a tough call either way.

[locutus2002]

Instapush. Any other move is terrible. I was trying to give the conceptual justification (Harrington), as I would move with alot less here.

1) You are ahead against a single caller which should be the BB by alot.
2) SB gets squeezed to some extent
3) Any bet is going to pot commit you so get them all in

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,097,572,400 games 7.343 secs 285,656,053 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 44.6396 % [ 00.43 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 2: 55.3604 % [ 00.54 00.01 ] { Qh9d }


---

2,456,391,168 games 18.422 secs 133,340,091 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 26.7565 % [ 00.26 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 2: 31.4494 % [ 00.30 00.02 ] { random }
Hand 3: 41.7941 % [ 00.41 00.01 ] { Qh9d }

[hurlyburly]

Yeah, Aces are golden shorthanded. I believe it's 78% for another ace to be dealt when you have an Ace 10-handed, so 5 handed, fold no ace.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In this exact spot, I'm pushing pairs, an ace, two broadway cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd *much* rather push this Q9 than A2-A5. I think A2-A5 (and probably A6, maybe A7) are easy mucks here, since you will be about a 3-1 dog against any hand that calls. With Q9, you could easily be a coinflip against a pair, a 2-1 dog against AK, or a 3-2ish dog against something like AT (a little worse) or A8 (a little better).

I agree with pushing any pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure about this. Since everyone knows you could be pushing with anything you are likely to be called with KJ, QJ or K9, etc. I would rather have A5 than Q9 here. At least with A5 you COULD possibly be ahead. With Q9, you're definitely behind. I mean, is Q8 or 10J gonna call you? I'd pass on Q9 here and hope for a better spot...particularly if this is late in a multi when you could possibly move up in the money after another hand or 2. But it's a tough call either way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think most players are calling off 80% (the SB) or even 40% (the BB) of their stack with QJ or KJ frankly. Maybe KQ, which has you humped of course, but if you are pushing A2 here, that's the only hand I see calling that *doesn't* have you stuck 3-1.

If he had 6-7x the BB I agree that I'd prefer A2 to Q9 (though I'm pushing either) because the range of calling hands broadens considerably.

[cferejohn]

So you are a 55% favorite over a random hand, so that's fine if you know he's going to be calling with any 2. However, you are betting 80% of SBs stack and 40% of BBs stack. They are going to have much tighter calling ranges than that. The fact that you are likely to have the best hand right now isn't what is important. If it was, then we could just as easily make the argument that you should push A9o here with 100x the BB....

[locutus2002]

You push because any bet would pot commit you, unlike the case where you have a9 and 100X.

Given the info you have when its your turn to act this is your only move. As I was saying I would move all in with alot less.

[phrosty]

Thanks for all the responses. This was a 33/2500 guarantee on empire with 80 entrants (in answer to one of your questions)thus the small stacks. Top ten paid so I'm in the money-first place paid 700, I made 200.

I used to be more patient in these spots and ended up getting down to the point where my "first in vigorish" was nill. I guess I have Harrington on the brain now, which can't be all bad. I like the concept of percentage of your opponents stack as a guide to what hands will call though, I will have to give this some more thought.

I guess there's no magic stack size/hand quality equation to make these things easy.

[ptmusic]

[ QUOTE ]
Instapush. Any other move is terrible. I was trying to give the conceptual justification (Harrington), as I would move with alot less here.

1) You are ahead against a single caller which should be the BB by alot.
2) SB gets squeezed to some extent
3) Any bet is going to pot commit you so get them all in

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,097,572,400 games 7.343 secs 285,656,053 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 44.6396 % [ 00.43 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 2: 55.3604 % [ 00.54 00.01 ] { Qh9d }


---

2,456,391,168 games 18.422 secs 133,340,091 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 26.7565 % [ 00.26 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 2: 31.4494 % [ 00.30 00.02 ] { random }
Hand 3: 41.7941 % [ 00.41 00.01 ] { Qh9d }

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your final answer, but you don't (and shouldn't) put the blinds on random hands. The much bigger issue is fold equity, and as the earlier poster said, if you haven't been raising constantly and the blinds are not too loose, I'd push for sure.

Yes, you are a dog if BB calls and he's tight, but if he'll fold 80% of the time, that weighs in more to the decision.

-ptmusic

[Exitonly]

yea, equity's vs random hands means squat.. you gotta put them on calling ranges, see what % of hands that is, and figure out your FE, and then your equity vs his calling range.

[locutus2002]

I don't think you understand that any two is BB's best range, and anything else is more CEV--.