Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Turn

[ QUOTE ]
I'm interested to see what Gigabet has to say about this hand that makes it interesting. I push.

[/ QUOTE ]

[hurlyburly]

I'm unable to reduce his range significantly. Whatever he's trying to tell me by taking the lead, my hand is still best way too often.

Had this been 5-way PF, this would be a tough decision, but I'm not good enough to fold now. I'm just sorry our stacks aren't a lot deeper.

If the villain is the type who likes having the lead, or now has me on the draw (by not reraising the flop), I'll just call.

Since we switched roles, I can live with not raising now that he's priced himself in for any river action.

[MrMoo]

I see villains range as: A9+, KT+, QJ-QT, AA-TT

Best guess on villains bet is that he has a reasonable hand. One pair with a straight draw or two pair.

I end it here and push. Against a solid player I think a call here against his range will likely extract more chips over the long run. I think a good player will get away from some of the weaker hands in his range that he might still be willing to put some more chips in on the river. Without knowing he's a strong player and considering typical play, I push here.

This bet looks like either he thinks he has the best hand, but even if he doesn't he has a draw to the nuts, or he's firing a last ditch bluff attempt at our flop weakness.

If its a bluff, I don't think we're getting anything more out of him, so we might as well just end it now.

The play looks too weird for a flopped straight or flopped set, I'm just not buying he has one of those.

My hand range is 90% here he has 2 pair or a pair and a straight draw: AK/AQ/AJ/AT/KJ...or the A7 for the top pair he thought was good on the flop, and now got excited he's got 2pr on the turn, less likely KQ/KT. We are ahead or tied with all of those, and I don't see how he's getting away from any of them if we push since he still has draws to the nuts or near nuts with all. But we might not get all the chips in on the river if we wait - I don't know if we get any more out of A7 on the river if it comes K/Q/J/T, with AJ if it comes river K/Q/T, etc.

That said, if we are behind we are toast, I think its so unlikely that I'm willing to go to the felt with this hand. If we are ahead and he's been bluffing with some middle pair TT-55, he's not bluffing the river. If we are ahead of a real hand, 2pr or pair+straight draw, almost all of them are coming with us, too, with the possible exception of the non-Ace-Pair+straight draw hands unless they have a flush draw, too (like JTd or QJd, but not JTo of QJo). JTd or QJd don't give us any money on the river if they miss either.

Push all in now. Get folded to rarely, expect a call out of AK/AQ/AJ/AT/A7/KJ, and the unlikely QT/AA/KK/JJ. Expect if you are running bad that they'll flip over the QT or the weirdly played AA.

Dennis

[MrMoo]

After reading through this thread I have to disagree with a lot of people. I don't think this is too terribly boring. Unless something surprising comes on the river I see this hand as an excersize in how to extract the most chips possible per a given hand. Currently I'm not convinced that pushing the turn extracts the most chips from villains range.

[EverettKings]

Look, there are just too many hands he could play this way that we beat, and I can hardly expect a typical player (let alone a party 100er) to be able to lay down anything decent to a push here. Folding is only really viable if we have some sick Giga-read that leads us to believe otherwise. No such read was given. I push.

Everett

[ QUOTE ]


I like straightforward hands [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

So do I. I especially like the idea of discussing playing a very good hand that's not the nuts. This discussion, IMHO, is +EV because it's very important to not autopilot these hands, especially as they're the way most of us make basically all of our money.

[ QUOTE ]
we have the Kd.

but umm... i call again and call/bet allin any river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. Good catch.

[ QUOTE ]
He could have Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for at least a conceivable backdoor flush draw.

No, this holding doesn't fit with the miniraise on the flop, but I'm not sure if any holding fits.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that many of his holdings fit much better with minraise than gutshot, small pair, and backdoor fd. IMHO, a minraise is usually a probe with a decent hand (like TPMK or second pair) or a value bet with a huge hand (like two pair+).

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I disagree greatly with most of the panel on this hand. I think this is a case of one of two situations. Either the hero is way ahead, or he is way behind. There are several possible hands that the villainn could have that we would ave soundly beat, AJ, possibly KJ, AT, AQ, JdTd and unlikely KQ JT or QQ. Now, just as likely (if not MORE likely), the villain could be holding AA, KK, JJ, AK, AKs (diamonds would be bad) and an unlikely QT. With how things have played out so far, it is VERY likely that the villain has the better hand here. Another question would be what hands could our villain be putting the hero on here? I would think that he would put our range at something similar. So, unless he is a real donk, I seriously doubt he would be betting 800 on this turn. That bet just asks for the hero to push (as many of you have decided to do). If the villain is holding AA, hero is drawing dead. Against KK, hero has 2 outs; JJ - 4, AKs chop or the villain has 9 outs to draw the nut flush, and the unlikely QT where the hero also has 4 outs. With the reraise on the flop, I don't see the villain (if he is an even reasonably good player) continuing to play any of the hands that the hero can beat. I think that this is clearly a fold situation. Barring further information, I am going to assume that the villain is a good player. I think that it is close, but I am going to give the villain credit for having a strong hand here and let it go. If the villain is a bad enough player to be continuing to play a marginal hand that far against that kind of betting, that I will be able to get my chips back on later hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Journal 10/14/05...

"and lastly, if I ever find myself at a final table with a guy who looks like a giant Gavin Griffin, fire the 2nd barrell 100% of the time."

[/ QUOTE ]

lmao...vnh, sir.