Relying too much on PT reads?

I know preflop questions are a thing of the past now ... but I was wondering, as a rule of thumb, how much does relying on PT reads affect your play preflop?

This post might be results-driven since I get moderatly creamed 2nite, but here is an example:

A 40/20/1 vpiper raises from late EP raises ... folded to me in CO with KJo. Normally, against your average tag I would muck. Recently i've been saying "hm, he raises with the same hands I call with ... statistically my KJ can't be far behind if they are behind at all".

The flop comes K high or J high ... when it's all said and done im showing down top pair to a dominated hand like, QQ (with a jack out), QJ, AK etc. Are these just isolated incidents or should I continue to trust my PT reads?

Another example - 2 50+ players limp from MP ... I am CO with a marginal hand like, KJ or KJs. If the blinds & button are reasonably tight, should I raise & try to play KJ 3-way against 2 players who probably limped with garbage? Is it still correct to do so with KJs even though KJs plays well multiway (and risk blinds drawing me with trash)? I think I might be taking this "isolate bad player(s)" thing too far to the point where it's leaking my game, but I haven't played enough hands to be sure.

try to play without gametracker for awhile, learn how to read people and categorize their play. Then go back to gametracker.

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hm, he raises with the same hands I call with

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[I'm a noobie disclaimer: this is just my 2 cents below...]

The LAG raises with the hands I call with *plus* the hands I raise with. My observations is that this can put me at a disadvantage if I call because when I hit postflop I don't have a good sense if I'm dominated or not. He's put me in a gambling situation. Being a LAG reraising him on the flop isn't going to tell much because he'll probably just reraise if he's hit the same pair. So my assumtion would be unless you can determine somehow confidently postflop that you have him beat, don't gamble that this time he's raising with something you have dominated. Again i'm a still a noobie. Maybe my thinking is an example of weak tight play, feel free to let me have it if I'm wrong so that I may improve. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[nomadtla]

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hm, he raises with the same hands I call with

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[I'm a noobie disclaimer: this is just my 2 cents below...]

The LAG raises with the hands I call with *plus* the hands I raise with. My observations is that this can put me at a disadvantage if I call because when I hit postflop I don't have a good sense if I'm dominated or not. He's put me in a gambling situation. Being a LAG reraising him on the flop isn't going to tell much because he'll probably just reraise if he's hit the same pair. So my assumtion would be unless you can determine somehow confidently postflop that you have him beat, don't gamble that this time he's raising with something you have dominated. Again i'm a still a noobie. Maybe my thinking is an example of weak tight play, feel free to let me have it if I'm wrong so that I may improve. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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VNH
That is worth at least 20 cents ten times the value you gave it. If someone is raising that much I want to wait for a better hand than KJ QJ. I want them to be gamboling not me.
Plus if you think their full of BS you will end up paying a lot to find out "crap even Lags get kings from time to time".
Let them have their fun and take the time in the folded hand to get a better postflop read that will help you when you have a hand to "go to war" with. I also like the advice of playing w/o gametime. The more I play without Pokerace the less I look at it when it is up. I think we should all try to do one session a week without a stats display, and realy concentrate on getting and keeping that reading skill. Plus this will help us find and take advantage of certain players weaknesses as we move up where they all get better but not better in the same way.

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Another example - 2 50+ players limp from MP ... I am CO with a marginal hand like, KJ or KJs. If the blinds & button are reasonably tight, should I raise & try to play KJ 3-way against 2 players who probably limped with garbage? Is it still correct to do so with KJs even though KJs plays well multiway (and risk blinds drawing me with trash)? I think I might be taking this "isolate bad player(s)" thing too far to the point where it's leaking my game, but I haven't played enough hands to be sure.

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Correct me if I wrong, but KJo tends to prefer HU situations more than multiway. So being up against one or two opponents is preferable. As it is a one gapper, the high card strength is more emphasized. So basically, you're expecting your TPDK to stand up against one or two loose players.

I'll raise with KJo after one or two loose limpers to knock the blinds out assuming the blinds are tight.

At least in the micros, I don't mind raising with KJs against more than 2 opponents especially if I have positional advantage.

I think the problem with tracker stats is that people often just use those as "reads." It's been said a million times, but stats should back up reads. Based on reads + stats, you should adjust your preflop play. "42/5/1.2/500" certainly helps, but it's only a part of the equation.

Another problem: how accurate is a model of an opponent if you only have, say, 30 or 50 hands. Believe me, I've adjusted my preflop according to stats only to find out that the opponent I was against was much tighter than I thought. A tight player can have a heatwave and skew your stats, so pay attention to what he's showing down and his betting patterns.

I like you thinking. One of my leaks because I am still am a newb is that I dont adjust my preflop enough.

This is why I don't use PT.

I don't want it to get to this point.

Flame away if you must but it's just my stance.

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hm, he raises with the same hands I call with

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[I'm a noobie disclaimer: this is just my 2 cents below...]

The LAG raises with the hands I call with *plus* the hands I raise with. My observations is that this can put me at a disadvantage if I call because when I hit postflop I don't have a good sense if I'm dominated or not. He's put me in a gambling situation. Being a LAG reraising him on the flop isn't going to tell much because he'll probably just reraise if he's hit the same pair. So my assumtion would be unless you can determine somehow confidently postflop that you have him beat, don't gamble that this time he's raising with something you have dominated. Again i'm a still a noobie. Maybe my thinking is an example of weak tight play, feel free to let me have it if I'm wrong so that I may improve. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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At what point do you draw the line? I think this kind of thinking will result in folding too many hands just cuz you don't have a feel for where you are in a hand. If you are constantly mucking hands that potentially have a fair amount of preflop equity (relative to opponents might hold) ... that seems bad.

In the extreme case, let's say someone is a 100/100 - raising with every single hand in every position. Now ... sure he *Might* have kings because, as someone said, even fish get deal kings ... but regardless, you better believe if he's on my direct right and I look down at a KJ I'm making it 3 bets and trying to isolate.

So my question is, at what point do you draw the line and start playing & raising these marginal hands against poor opponents?

[milesdyson]

there's no reason not to use it. just don't misuse it.

are you really going to notice a guy limping a lot and then check folding a lot when you're 3 or 4 tabling without PT? nah, you'll ignore him because he hasn't really seen any big streets or shown down any hands. you might as well play with all the info you have...

I am relatively new here as well, and have had a similar experience with PT. I am finding it very useful to help me begin to break my own game apart, but often leads me to trouble when I use it with HUD. Somethings are pretty clear w/ PT .. .respect a raise from a very tight person that rarely raises ... don't semi-bluff someone that has seen 80% of showdowns, etc. But the subtleties are still above my own abilities.

I find I generally do best when I 3-4 table, and thus rely more on my general instincts (and what I have read), rather than trying to play the players too much. That will come for me in time I am sure, and PT will help, but as someone relatively new to the game, too much information can be dangerous.

just my 2c