Return on Investment Simulations

[stoxtrader]

correct me if i'm wrong, but I dont think many people have the problem of konwing something is +EV and not playing it.

I think the more common probably is defining the +EV in the first place. Do I misunderstand you?

[phish]

I think this whole post is an example of an academic type who don't understand poker very well (nor finance neither probably) trying to find that 'magic bullit'.

Complete waste of time. How are you ever going to properly simulate post-flop play, which is the overwhelmingly important factor.

[schmidts31]

Curtis,
thanks, Yes, it was vague...I am trying to get a list of hands that make a certain return pre-flop.
That is fairly easy....
What I am wondering however, is more difficult to get at.
Why some players are willing to play one hand in a position, and not another in a another position when they return the same.
Kind of a mental idea which goes on in players' minds.

[schmidts31]

Phish, thanks for the comments.

it is bullet, and I am not that interested in post-flop.
My key is starting hands here.

[tongni]

Maybe this is not what you are looking for, but ideally I believe you want to play every hand that is not negative EV. This would include all hands that are neutral EV, because adding those hands adds value to your other hands. I think that number is around 20 VPIP in a full game, but I might be off.

[mterry]

I'm still trying to understand what you're getting at

[ QUOTE ]
Why some players are willing to play one hand in a position, and not another in a another position when they return the same.

[/ QUOTE ]
There is no universally agreed upon value for a given pf hand in a certain position. AJo UTG and K9s co are constantly changing value as the table conditions change.

Also, if you're not interested in post-flop play, why does position factor into the hand evaluation?

[Dazarath]

[ QUOTE ]
Why some players are willing to play one hand in a position, and not another in a another position when they return the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where your whole discussion goes awry. If you read some of the previous posts, you'll see that this is ridiculous. Your example is AJo UTG and K9s in the CO. You're saying that AJo UTG and K9s in the CO have the same ROI. And then you're saying that players will play AJo UTG but not K9s in the CO.

IF they both have the same ROI and IF it's positive and IF that fact is known, then players will play them both. It's much more likely though, that AJo UTG and K9s in the CO do NOT have the same ROI, and there's where your assumption falls apart.

I'm personally playing AJo UTG 100% of the time whereas K9s in the CO is dependent on other factors (raises, limpers, etc). I think the problem is that you're making the assumption that AJo UTG and K9s in the CO both return 10%, based only on these simulations.

When you play a hand in the CO, there are many factors you need to take into account. Even IF K9s returns 10% on average, there are situations where it will be -EV and there are situations where it will be +EV. For example, if a 10/3/1 and a 15/5/2 limp in EP, you have to fold your K9s. If four 40/10/2 players limp, it's throwing away potential money to fold.

[schmidts31]

Mterry,
Thanks for responding.
I have done sims on these hands looking for a specific ROI.
AJ UTG and K9s in co return the same when you raise when first in the pot.
I am just wondering why some people are more willing to play the first hand and not the latter.

As for post flop play...I am not that concerned with it.
I want to start with hands in specific positions that are profitable and be able to consistantly play those hands in those situations...that is it.

[VBCurtis]

Two problems: First, determining return on a specific hand in a specific position is really quite thorny. There is room here for some difference of opinion, in addition to adjustments to starting hand tables based on the players in the blinds. If you wish to ignore who the specific opponents are, then you're talking $1/2 poker, which isn't addressing anything in mid-high.

Second, if we ignore differences of opinion, your questions boils down to "why do people play bad?", since you're asking why they're inconsistent in their choices of hands that are (in theory) the same EV. Shania is one answer-- play members of a small class of -EV hands on occasion so that your play is less predictable. Perhaps I see your original curiosity about identical +EV hands being played sometimes and not others; this is simply people play bad, esp at low stakes. You won't find people in Mid-Hi that make these sorts of mistakes, so they don't understand why you're asking about a player who would. At $1/2, they make these mistakes, and we make money off those mistakes. At $15/30, we make money almost solely off post-flop mistakes, as the preflop mistakes are tiny/rare. Looking at pre-flop only is reinventing the wheel, and perhaps 5% of poker understanding (though often enough to beat the easiest games).
-Curtis

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
Mterry,
Thanks for responding.
I have done sims on these hands looking for a specific ROI.
AJ UTG and K9s in co return the same when you raise when first in the pot.
I am just wondering why some people are more willing to play the first hand and not the latter.

As for post flop play...I am not that concerned with it.
I want to start with hands in specific positions that are profitable and be able to consistantly play those hands in those situations...that is it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The focus of your question appears to be deeper than the responses are indicating: why are people more willing to do one thing over another when the results are the same? If this is your question, perhaps the better forum would be "Psychology". But maybe you are not asking this question. If you are simply asking individuals of this forum if they prefer one situation over the other, then you should probably ask it directly, rather than explaining the rationale.

To answer the "direct" question, I do NOT prefer AJo UTG over K9s in the CO. I will FRC (fold, raise call) {60,35,5} (Now I'm in the club by the way), whereas my FRC for K9s in CO is {1,99,0}.

To answer the "deeper" question, perhaps people like Aces more than they like suited cards and good position.?!?