a hand where I fold TPGK and OESD on the turn

jba · #1 12-03-2005, 10:06 PM

MP is 52/.7/.6 over 271 typical loose passive
CO is 41/18/1.7 over 210, seems decent postflop

I just about let the time run out on this one.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, CO raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP raises, CO 3-bets, Hero folds

Jinx · #2 12-03-2005, 10:09 PM

At first I thought I would never make this fold. Then I looked at the stats. I guess you're looking at a set or 2 pair from MP, but for you to fold this you would need to put CO on exactly AK.

Redd · #3 12-03-2005, 10:11 PM

Why didn't you 3bet the flop?

CO would have quite likely capped AK here. Why don't you feel that you have at least 6 straight outs on the turn?

jba · #4 12-03-2005, 10:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you 3bet the flop?

CO would have quite likely capped AK here. Why don't you feel that you have at least 6 straight outs on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was convinced I was behind MP on the flop.

not everyone caps AK preflop

are you discounting 2 straight outs because of the flush or because of the likelihood of splitting?

also I believe AK is very possibly in MP's range (maybe not after his flop raise)

edit: three reasons to discount my straight outs: split pot (very possible), I'm drawing dead to AK, bd flush (unlikely)

pokerstudAA · #5 12-03-2005, 10:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you have at least 8 straight outs on the turn 6 to the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ] fyp.

6 outs to the nuts or 8. Getting 15:2 on the call if I count correctly. Folding is icky.

The only problem is if it gets capped. If it is capped your odds are more like 18:3.

I also think a split pot is the least of your concerns here.

Jinx · #6 12-03-2005, 10:19 PM

While not everyone caps AK, a 41/17 player most likely caps AK. MP might actually have AK given his turn check raise, since he didn't seem to fear giving the free card. But MP is a fish so who knows how he thinks.

Peter Harris · #7 12-03-2005, 10:20 PM

i like the fold here, MP can cap it behind you, the 9 and A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are possibly (but not likely) tainted, you may chop with AK.

I dont think i can be persuaded, given a LP-Ps c/r that it won't be capped after i call. So i fold. I may be wrong, i dont play 5/10, but i fold nonetheless.

jba · #8 12-03-2005, 10:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you have at least 8 straight outs on the turn 3 to the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ] fyp.

[/ QUOTE ]

fyfyp

edit: also assume I call here, river bricks and it checks to CO who bets. can you actually fold there getting like 18-1? if not you need to consider effective odds

edit2: i'm still not convinced whether call or fold is correct, just arguing both sides until it is clear

Chairman Wood · #9 12-03-2005, 10:25 PM

I think you should have raised CO's first bet on the turn.

Redd · #10 12-03-2005, 10:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was convinced I was behind MP on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why? A worse queen is a definite possibility, maybe even a jack. 0.6AF is passive, but not horrendously passive for such a high VPIP.
Do you expect him to have 2p or a set here? You appear to be getting an overlay from the guy in the middle drawing to possibly 3 outs as well.

[ QUOTE ]

not everyone caps AK preflop

[/ QUOTE ]
True. But I would expect a cap from a 18% pfr, in a pseudo-blind steal/isolation situation, with position, with a very loose donk padding the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
are you discounting 2 straight outs because of the flush or because of the likelihood of splitting?

[/ QUOTE ]

The 6 outs was just a ballpark number that I would expect you to have that justifies calling. I'd discount it for both; the BD flush is pretty unlikely and is only a problem 25% of the time when we hit our outs, so I'd knock off less than half an out for it.

So if we assume we split 1 time in 3, then that means 30% of the time we have half the effective outs, or 7.5*0.7+(7.5/2)*0.3 which gives us 6.375 outs. It's also true the limper might have AK a certain amount of the time; I don't expect it to be that often after his flop raise. Even for the odd time this happens, FWIW we're still drawing to 3 outs for a split. I think even after the discount for the possibility of AK we can make this call.

[ QUOTE ]

also I believe AK is very possibly in MP's range (maybe not after his flop raise)

[/ QUOTE ]
If we believe MP can raise AK on the flop, that's a really good reason to 3-bet. This really contradicts with the statement that you're convinced that you're beat on the flop.