Mason's Bunching Part II

[PairTheBoard]

Mason gives an example where there is an EP raise and 3 cold calls to you. You have 33.

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Mason -
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</font> Of course a trey could be out there in the discarded hands, but in this situation there are fewer of them than normal. So it seems to me that it is a little more likely to flop your set here than it would typically be. My educated guess is that instead of being 7½- to-1 to catch that third trey, a better estimate is more like 5-to-1.

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Assuming all 4 players do not have a 3 I calculate 1 chance in about 7.2 or about 6.2-1 against flopping a set of 3's or better, not 5-1. Why guess?

Since there actually is some small chance one of the players has a 3 the odds are really slightly higher - but probably not much. With pot odds of about 5-1 the improvement from 7.5-1 to about 6.2-1 still makes Mason's point relevant, just not quite as much so.

PairTheBoard