Sweating a Friend, he makes this fold. Opinions? - Page 8

JaBlue · #71 05-12-2005, 12:03 PM

Isn't this EXACTLY WHY the resteal is so effective here?

Just because some play is the best doesn't mean that the villain sees it that way. The majority of players will not tangle with the big stack that can bust them without the goods, period. There's no reason for you to assume that he's restealing unless he's been aggressive and showing that he's got the cahones to do it. Most people in these tournaments don't have the cahones, so why would you lump him in the minority to make your decision before you are proven otherwise? If you are proven otherwise, then the answer would be very obvious to you and your friend so I would think you wouldn't post it.

Also, note that one effect of your folding here is preserving the bubble.

gumpzilla · #72 05-12-2005, 12:43 PM

Hmmm; not sure who you're replying to, as I don't remember using that quote anywhere in the thread and at least not in the linked post.

I think the TT decision here can be a very close one. SoBe didn't really give us much information to work with about the table image of the Hero, which is essential to trying to put BB on any kind of range. And I think many of the people here are responding on the basis of what they would do in this situation assuming they had gotten to this point through the use of their particular steal-heavy style. But that style is not necessarily Hero's style.

My main point is that one of the mantras of tournament play is that it's a great idea to go on the offensive come bubble time because the average player heavily tightens up and you can steal much easier. People are then assuming that BB is a LAGgy 2+2'er style player who is going to employ second or third level thinking and realize that this would be prime time for a resteal. This is possible, but why assume it's the default? Why not assume that this player holds to the conventional wisdom of staying tight at the bubble against the stacks that can bust you? In fact, the BB has been specifically marked as "pretty tight," which is the ONLY thing we know about him. Is he good? Bad? I don't expect mediocre "pretty tight" players to come over me with garbage here, or even with middling hands, particularly when he's still got plenty of FE with his stack at the moment.

Also, nobody (myself included) has done a shred of math to establish whether you should take TT vs. AK style confrontations if they are offered. Given that this seems like a pure math problem, it seems like a deficiency in the conversation.

schwza · #73 05-12-2005, 12:52 PM

might have replied to the wrong person there. it was a quote within a quote, and i guessed it was you but didn't go back and read carefully.

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Also, nobody (myself included) has done a shred of math to establish whether you should take TT vs. AK style confrontations if they are offered. Given that this seems like a pure math problem, it seems like a deficiency in the conversation.

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that's true, no one has. i strongly suspect that you want to take that, with the 55% edge and the pot odds.

Pat Southern · #74 05-12-2005, 01:10 PM

This thread really makes my head hurt. If so many people here aren't convinced calling is right, then I'm pushing everytime a SB raises my BB on the bubble.

gumpzilla · #75 05-12-2005, 01:12 PM

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This thread really makes my head hurt. If so many people here aren't convinced calling is right, then I'm pushing everytime a SB raises my BB on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

In which case calling would be completely correct, because it would be an entirely different situation than playing against a relative unknown labeled as tight. Why is this so hard to grasp?

What makes my head hurt is how few people are actually trying to give real arguments instead of ranting about how sucky everyone else is. But please tell me more about the calls that win tournaments.

wdcbooks · #76 05-12-2005, 01:16 PM

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This thread really makes my head hurt. If so many people here aren't convinced calling is right, then I'm pushing everytime a SB raises my BB on the bubble.

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I've already taken two Tylenol after reading this and I may need a nap.

To make this even more callalicious, let's refine villain's range further. If you are the villain with AA in the BB, do you push all in? I rarely would unless I had damn good reason to suspect that the SB had a real hand. I want all his chips in the pot and will take whatever line is most expeditious towards achieving that goal. I probably trap with QQ and KK as well by flat calling, or raising short of all in.

If we decrease the likelihood of those hands in our analysis the call becomes even more mandatory. The only hand I wouldn't be surprised to see that has us beat is JJ and maybe QQ. There are about fifty hands that we are beating that are just as likely.

If the villain turned As Ks face up would you make this call? You certainly should, and if you wouldn't I would need to hear a real good argument for why not.

Pat Southern · #77 05-12-2005, 01:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This thread really makes my head hurt. If so many people here aren't convinced calling is right, then I'm pushing everytime a SB raises my BB on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

In which case calling would be completely correct, because it would be an entirely different situation than playing against a relative unknown labeled as tight. Why is this so hard to grasp?

What makes my head hurt is how few people are actually trying to give real arguments instead of ranting about how sucky everyone else is. But please tell me more about the calls that win tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you will instintively know that I have changed gears on the bubble, as opposed to me playing tight, which I probably have up until that point? I never said that I'd push everytime the SB raised my BB, I said on the bubble, which lasts no more than 15 hands.

Not to say I think calling is -EV at all (against a good opponent's hand range, you should be a very large favorite) but pros like Daniel Negreanu have stated that they make what could be a -EV play on one hand to build a huge stack that they can use to bully the table later, I think its called an inflection point, and will be discussed in HOH2. Also, I dont think you should be raising if you are going to fold to a reraise, you are essentially saying that the only value TT has here is as a steal, which makes it no different than 27o. If calling here really won't let you sleep at night, then go for a limp/reraise (unless you think that he's only raising with AA and KK, I wouldn't be surprised if some people thought that considering how this discussion has gone).

As for your point that all the call advocates is done is say you're wrong. I have shown the range of hands that he would have (in my opinion) and your equity against them. Along with the range of hands that he would need to have in order to make this a coinflip (which, along with the dead chips in the pot would still make this a call). I have not seen any post that can even slightly justify a fold. Every post is "its the bubble, he's probably playing tight." Remember, this tournament is not a $5 tournament, its a $55+rebuys, people aren't merely thinking on the first level of "I want to make the money, I'm a genius for folding everything except AA." They are thinking "Its the bubble, at a short handed table, the SB is probably stealing here with just about any 2 cards, I have tremendous folding equity if I push, and even if he calls, I have A6s, which is pretty good 5 handed."

yecul · #78 05-12-2005, 01:43 PM

Unless you read this guy as only making the move with QQ-AA then I think this is a call. Or, if you just want to make the money and survive as long as you can. Anyone pushing for 1st would probably have to be compelled to make the call. TT is rather strong in this spot and he should have a wide range of hands. I would expect to see AK here a lot more than AA. But I'm a donk, so who knows.

Pat Southern · #79 05-12-2005, 01:47 PM

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TT is rather strong in this spot and he should have a wide range of hands. I would expect to see A8 here a lot more than AA.

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Fixed your post.

Che · #80 05-12-2005, 01:59 PM

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The people who accept that you are at worst 60/40 and still want to fold (with a lot of money in the pot already) are frankly insane. This idea that you have all sorts of opportunities to get your money in the middle with an overwhelming edge is nonsense.

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Only 7 posts and this wdcbooks guy is already one of my favorite posters. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]