AKs Flop Laydown

JacksonTens · #1 12-25-2005, 06:27 AM

Villain is quality, a tough thinking TAG. Perhaps even better than myself postflop. Likes to make plays, but I feel I have somewhat discouraged this tendancy. Also the size of the pot also adds an amount of protection.

$6-12 9 handed Live

Hero is MP2 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG calls, fold, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, BT calls, fold, BB calls, UTG calls

Flop (5) 10SB K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BT calls, BB calls, fold, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP1 4-bets, Hero???

Can I lay it down right here putting MP1 on KJ? I felt very strongly that this was his holding. Either that or 66. Or should I take one off and fold the turn?

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Nick C · #2 12-25-2005, 06:49 AM

Don't fold yet.

You need to peel against KJ, and Villain also could be playing a big draw (like J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) this way, I think.

Actually, given the big draw possibilities, I'd consider calling again unimproved on the turn and river.

JacksonTens · #3 12-25-2005, 06:56 AM

You think I should peel turn and river? Yeah the spades are out there, and JTs is a possibility. I did consider this that villain would bet and bluff a draw , and if I choose to call down I'm only getting around 4:1 on my money (reverse implied odds). Am I good 25% of the time? If he's on a big draw will I be good 25% of the time?

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

JacksonTens · #4 12-25-2005, 07:01 AM

What about reverse implied odds? It will cost me 2.5 BB to see this river. Even if villain is on a play or draw will I be good enough of the time to warrant a call down.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Nick C · #5 12-25-2005, 07:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You think I should peel turn and river? Yeah the spades are out there, and JTs is a possibility. I did consider this that villain would bet and bluff a draw , and if I choose to call down I'm only getting around 4:1 on my money (reverse implied odds). Am I good 25% of the time? If he's on a big draw will I be good 25% of the time?

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You're actually getting closer to 5:1, aren't you? (If you win, you also collect Villain's turn and river bets.) Plus, I think you need to at least see the turn, to try to spike an ace. KJ is mathematically 3 times as likely as 66, and we can't even narrow Villain down to just those hands.

And once you're at the turn, you're getting more like 6:1 on a calldown.

KJ and 66 is 12 combos you're losing to. QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, and Js9s is four combos you're beating.

I don't know. On some turns (such as a non-ace spade) I think you can give it up, but I would call on a blank.

Nick C · #6 12-25-2005, 07:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What about reverse implied odds? It will cost me 2.5 BB to see this river. Even if villain is on a play or draw will I be good enough of the time to warrant a call down.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Reverse implied odds are a factor. But you do get to see what falls on the turn before making a decision on that street. If the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls, for instance, I'm thinking it would be good to give up and fold.

JacksonTens · #7 12-25-2005, 07:22 AM

You seem to be very concerned about the spades, at the time I was somewhat concerned but I felt that reverse domination and drawing dead, were what made me fold. Yes I did 3bet/fold. I'll only do it in extremely rare situations. But yeah I'm starting to think it was perhaps wrong here. Even though I was confident of my read.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Nick C · #8 12-25-2005, 07:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to be very concerned about the spades, at the time I was somewhat concerned but I felt that reverse domination and drawing dead, were what made me fold. Yes I did 3bet/fold. I'll only do it in extremely rare situations. But yeah I'm starting to think it was perhaps wrong here. Even though I was confident of my read.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the flop fold, but I can make a case for it. Here it is:

Villain's 4-bet reduces the possibility of a big draw. I don't think the 4-bet eliminates the possibility, but let's imagine that it does.

That leaves KJ and 66. With KJs, Villain might've raised preflop. And KJo is only 7 combos, while 66 is 3 combos. You're getting an immediate 19:1, but spiking an ace will only give you a redraw, 30 percent of the time (if we can narrow Villain's holdings to KJo/66). You are drawing very badly, if Villain has 66.

In any case, I would actually call the 4-bet pretty automatically, but the decisions from that point on seem more difficult to me. (I'm not confident that continuing to call unimproved on the turn is really best.)

Nick Royale · #9 12-25-2005, 08:16 AM

Ok, so this is a well playing TAG. Guess that makes him fold KJo here but call KJs. There only one combo of KJs possible. Other hands I think he could play this way: AJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/JT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/QJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. AQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/QT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/J9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is less likely, but still possible. I don't think he'll ever slowplay hands such as AA/KK preflop given the earlier action and he'll 3-bet JJ as well. 66? Not impossible, calling 66 in this spot at a good table is clearly fine. Your read seems good, I think this type of player folds KJo preflop most of the time.

Hands you're behind of:
KJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/66 (plus 5 combos of KJo discounted to 1.5, and I think that's reasonable)
Hands you're ahead of:
AJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/JT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/QJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/AQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/QT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/J9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I think folding would be terrible. Really terrible, I think you're almost ~40% of the time here and even when you're not you have the odds to draw getting 19:1! I would probably check/call him down unless a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls. Depending on how tricky I think he is I might bet the turn to prevent giving a freecard, but if I think he'll keep fire with most his big draws I just check/call. He don't even have to fire at the turn very often with a draw for you to be correct to call, you're getting 11.5:1 and have 3 outs even if he has 2-pair.

Nick Royale · #10 12-25-2005, 08:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
And KJo is only 5 combos, while 66 is 3 combos.

[/ QUOTE ]

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In any case, I would actually call the 4-bet pretty automatically, but the decisions from that point on seem more difficult to me. (I'm not confident that continuing to call unimproved on the turn is really best.)

[/ QUOTE ]
I think I would need a good read that villain won't bet a big draw on the turn to be able to fold. In this case I wouldn't check/fold the turn, villain has been tricky earlier. It must be obvious for villain hero either has a big draw or paired a K. If villain has a draw he knows it not likely Hero has a draw and in that case he has to estimate how often Hero will fold a K if he bets a draw. My guess would be that villain knows Hero is a TAG and betting the turn with a draw won't win him the pot very often. Bet/fold?