Is this a losing streak or do I all of a sudden suck?

Bytestream · #1 02-22-2005, 04:39 AM

My first 30k hands of pokertracker (been playing years longer then that though) had me coming along nicely at 2.6BB/100.

Sunday I started losing streak unlike anything I have experienced before. Down about 150bb in 3k hands. Its ugly. I feel like if theres a hand that can beat me, its out there. If im on a draw, it misses etc etc.

I've sorted the stats and noticed that for the first 30k hands I sustained a Won$atSD of about 51.5% Is this about what it should be?

For the last 3k the number is only 45%. The rest of the numbers are basically the same.

Is this indicative of a bad run? or do i suck and was lucky before?

KK 14 times, down $15. AKs used to win for me about 60% of the time. During this run I have a $64 net loss with the hand at at a 22% winrate.

I dont know what to make of this. I figure winning an extra 6% of pots (going to SD about 32%) would mean winning roughly 55 more pots? With 4 bb in each pot, that would cover the loss and then some. I dont know if that the right way to look at this. Any advice?

Shoe · #2 02-22-2005, 04:49 AM

It sounds like your just running bad. Take a few days off to relax, and when you come back hopefully you will be refreshed and ready to start winning again.

Yeknom58 · #3 02-22-2005, 04:51 AM

You were probably running really good for 30k hands. I'm not saying you suck or you just turned retarded I'm just calling it how I see it. Most people don't like to hear this kind of stuff but if you've never had a losing streak over 100BB you've just been running well and you're not at good as you think. You are probably a winning player I'm just saying you're not the N.E. patriots of poker.

Bytestream · #4 02-22-2005, 04:54 AM

That could be the case as I alluded to in my post. Im looking for some validation of PT Stats. Can you base this observation on some numbers? Thanks

47outs · #5 02-22-2005, 05:13 AM

I think you already know the answer.

Hang in there, I had a nasty run last month too. 9000 hands -$150BB, this is enormous for me as I am one of those VPIP 10% players. The grass in always greener next month. The downswing caused me to spend a whole day disecting my PT stats and hand historys. Conclusion: I wasn't playing bad I just got cold decked.

Take a deep breath, and a day to do the same!

outs

Niediam · #6 02-22-2005, 05:22 AM

I'd dare say that 3k hands is only a moderate losing streak... everybody who plays serious poker is going to have streaks that long.

LoveMyAces · #7 02-22-2005, 05:25 AM

Bytestream may I ask where and what games you have been playing? Is this mainly on one site or is it many? Do you play multiple tables? As much info as possible may lead to a pattern.

Yeknom58 · #8 02-22-2005, 05:25 AM

"VPIP 10%"

I don't know where you're playing or who you're playing with but unless you are playing in a rock garden this is way to tight. I think the "zone" has been quoted as being in the high teens.

TylerD · #9 02-22-2005, 05:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
However, I am making the conjecture that my winrate will continue to exceed 3bb/hr over the next 38K hands as well. We are not talking about Vegas 20/40, this is Party 2/4, the majority of players are absolutely horrendous** and such winrates shouldn't be so unbelievable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess that 4.7BB/100 wasn't so sustainable, huh?

Its just a down swing, it happens.

Yeknom58 · #10 02-22-2005, 05:48 AM

Well okay...umm 2+BB/100 hands..thats pretty good but not great. 51% won money at SD...eh looks to be about right could be a few bits higher. 45%...Eh looks a bit low but 3k hands is such a small sample. I don't know what you're looking for exactly.

Is this your first 100+BB losing streak. Well if it is just welcome to the club. Get ready for lots of them, winning players have big losing streaks so don't worry...end of story. This could easily mean nothing or it could mean you suck. Unless you have a crystal ball that tells you your win rate at like 100K-200K-300K hands there is no way to tell your actual win rate. I don't mean to be cryptic but this type of question is basically impossible to answer.

Honestly, 30k at over 2BB/100 PROBABLY means you don't suck but the fact that you're getting all bent out of shape over this 150BB's means you've been running really well or haven't played for very long. So like don't worry and stuff.