AKs Flop Laydown

[Nick C]

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And KJo is only 5 combos, while 66 is 3 combos.

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Ah, jeez, you're right. I did the combos wrong. (I forgot about the king in our hand when I was figuring the combos.)

Well, 66 starts looking more likely now than I thought it was. And this becomes more true if we need to discount KJo, like you've said you want to. (Personally, I don't think we need to discount it too much. I suspect a lot of TAGs will overlimp KJo from MP1 in a live game.)

But, while 66 gains in likelihood versus KJ when we replace my incorrect combos with the correct ones, the possibility that we're up against a big draw also goes up.

In any case, I agree with you that we should not fold the flop.

[Nick C]

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And KJo is only 5 combos, while 66 is 3 combos.

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In any case, I would actually call the 4-bet pretty automatically, but the decisions from that point on seem more difficult to me. (I'm not confident that continuing to call unimproved on the turn is really best.)

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I think I would need a good read that villain won't bet a big draw on the turn to be able to fold. In this case I wouldn't check/fold the turn, villain has been tricky earlier. It must be obvious for villain hero either has a big draw or paired a K. If villain has a draw he knows it not likely Hero has a draw and in that case he has to estimate how often Hero will fold a K if he bets a draw. My guess would be that villain knows Hero is a TAG and betting the turn with a draw won't win him the pot very often. Bet/fold?

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If we get checked to, a bet-fold sounds good to me.

I'm not going to be shocked if Villain leads again on the turn with a big draw, though (especially if 4 bets is not a cap and Hero could have 5-bet the flop). The flop 4-bet (once the pot is already heads-up) seems to indicate Villain plans to continue playing his draw aggressively, if that's what he has.

[Nick Royale]

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And KJo is only 5 combos, while 66 is 3 combos.

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In any case, I would actually call the 4-bet pretty automatically, but the decisions from that point on seem more difficult to me. (I'm not confident that continuing to call unimproved on the turn is really best.)

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I think I would need a good read that villain won't bet a big draw on the turn to be able to fold. In this case I wouldn't check/fold the turn, villain has been tricky earlier. It must be obvious for villain hero either has a big draw or paired a K. If villain has a draw he knows it not likely Hero has a draw and in that case he has to estimate how often Hero will fold a K if he bets a draw. My guess would be that villain knows Hero is a TAG and betting the turn with a draw won't win him the pot very often. Bet/fold?

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If we get checked to, a bet-fold sounds good to me.

I'm not going to be shocked if Villain leads again on the turn with a big draw, though (especially if 4 bets is not a cap and Hero could have 5-bet the flop). The flop 4-bet (once the pot is already heads-up) seems to indicate Villain plans to continue playing his draw aggressively, if that's what he has.

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Oh my [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
Maybe you counted the combos slightly wrong, but I read the entire hand totally wrong. I thought we were oop and villain cold called. This changes the entire hand, we don't need to discount KJo much and he'll never hold AsQs/AsJs. And since he ain't got position he is less likely to cap the flop with a draw, but if he is he'll probably bet the turn with it. However I wouldn't fold the flop. So I guess it comes down to how often he'll be playing a draw overly aggressive. It seems to me your read is strong so I'll probably just fold the turn if he bets. The fact that we're folding the turn ui along with the fact that he'll bet every turn makes the flop bet slimmer, but I still like it. Tricky situation, very read dependant.

[bisonbison]

Folding the flop for one more bet would be terrible.

[W. Deranged]

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Folding the flop for one more bet would be terrible.

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Seriously. We're getting 19-1.

I think it's important to realize that getting about 5-1 on a call-down here, needing to be good only about 17% of the time, calling down here is never going to be that major an error. We'll hit an A like 12% of the time as it is. Add in the times villain is pushing a draw or something and it's at least close.

[piocet]

MP1 could hold TQs, JQs, AJs just to name a few.