Cold Call 3 and Chase; Bet Sklansky Didn't Teach This!

[Jake (The Snake)]

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Pre flop: Your getting roughly 5:1 to call. Having it get capped won't really matter since you'll still be getting the same odds.

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This is incorrect. Try doing the math on the difference between 5:1 and 20:4 on how bets you need to make up postflop.

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Pre flop: Your getting roughly 5:1 to call. Having it get capped won't really matter since you'll still be getting the same odds.

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This is incorrect. Try doing the math on the difference between 5:1 and 20:4 on how bets you need to make up postflop.

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You are getting 5:1 to call, and it's about 7.5:1 to flop a set. So you can make up 2.5 SB postflop and you will break even. Seem likely in this game, unfortunately, it's not 2.5 SB you have to make up; it's 3 times this. You will need to earn just under 4BB postflop to make up for your preflop call, so I think it's really really really close if it's even +EV at all.

[Roadstar]

Here are the results, I got terribly lucky:

UTG+2 had AA

MP2 had 44

MHIG [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I have no idea why MP2 didn't raise the turn when he hit the miracle card - I definitely would (EDITED) have been TOUGH to cold call 2 on the turn.

I know it was a suckout but poor opponents (cold 3 bet calling preflop) and weak post flop play (MP2s smooth call on the turn) gave me some equity/odds that I shouldn't have had to begin with I think.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
Here are the results, I got terribly lucky:

UTG+2 had AA

MP2 had 44

MHIG [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I have no idea why MP2 didn't raise the turn when he hit the miracle card - I definitely would not have cold called 2 on the turn.

I know it was a suckout but poor opponents (cold 3 bet calling preflop) and weak post flop play (MP2s smooth call on the turn) gave me some equity/odds that I shouldn't have had to begin with I think.

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You would cold call 2 on the turn getting 8-1 with an up and down straight draw? Really?

NH, glad you took it down.

[Songwind]

*grunch*
I fold preflop when it's 3 to me. With this kind of action preflop, what are you going to do when you hit your set with A, K or Q on the board?

Flop: Since you're there, you actually have the odds to chase the 2-outer, so I call as well.

Turn: I agree with your read on the outs, and I call here for 15:1

River: You are a shameless luckbox. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I understand your reasoning on hoping for overcalls, but I believe I would raise. I think you're ahead here often enough to make it profitable.

[Roadstar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here are the results, I got terribly lucky:

UTG+2 had AA

MP2 had 44

MHIG [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I have no idea why MP2 didn't raise the turn when he hit the miracle card - I definitely would not have cold called 2 on the turn.

I know it was a suckout but poor opponents (cold 3 bet calling preflop) and weak post flop play (MP2s smooth call on the turn) gave me some equity/odds that I shouldn't have had to begin with I think.

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You would cold call 2 on the turn getting 8-1 with an up and down straight draw? Really?

NH, glad you took it down.

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I think you're right, I could have just bit my tongue and press call on the turn if raised.... because a raise shouldn't been a made straight here... you're right..

[ErrantNight]

how is it that you figure he's getting 20:1 on the flop but 400:1 on the turn?

otherwise i completely agree with you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Roadstar]

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*grunch*
I fold preflop when it's 3 to me. With this kind of action preflop, what are you going to do when you hit your set with A, K or Q on the board?

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Well this table was a mix of LAGs and LPPs. Out of the past 10 hands, 3 were probably capped preflop - so I thought I had the odds here. A controversial play I suppose, and Jake pointed out (and its a good one) that a cap behind me makes it harder to make up on implied odds.

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Flop: Since you're there, you actually have the odds to chase the 2-outer, so I call as well.

Turn: I agree with your read on the outs, and I call here for 15:1

River: You are a shameless luckbox. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I understand your reasoning on hoping for overcalls, but I believe I would raise. I think you're ahead here often enough to make it profitable.

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Yeah I'm a shameless luckbox [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I did pick up a bunch of outs on the turn tho!

I don't think I'd raise because of the overcalls. Think of it this way:

If I raise the river, ppl behind me are likely to fold and IF I'm ahead MP2 calls so I get an extra 1BB. If I'm behind, MP2 will 3 bet, I (not having the disclipine in face of a monster pot) will make a crying call and lose 2BB.

BUT if I just call (still thinking I'm ahead), I'm likely to count on the 2 behind me to call due to the size of the pot and the likelihood of them holding something like AA or KK. So if I call, 2 overalls, that is an extra 2 BB if I win, WITHOUT having to put in another BB myself. If I lose I lose.

So in summary:

Raise: Cost - 2BB to win 1 more BB if ahead, Cost - 3 BB if 3 bet and likely to lose

Call: Cost - 1BB to win potentially 2 more BB (but probably at least 1 as is the case here), Cost 1BB if I lose since aggressor can't raise his own bet.

I guess we could factor in a raise behind me but thats less likely.