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  #11  
Old 12-14-2005, 12:04 PM
PseudoPserious PseudoPserious is offline
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Default Re: Laggiest Game Ever

Ooops, you're right -- I messed up the calculation in the earlier pot anyway; I forgot to reduce the expected profit when you missed your draw. Disregard my earlier post.

I'll try again, and hopefully not screw this one up.

For the suited connectors...
Assumptions:
5.25:1 to flop flush draw/OESD.
28:1 to flop a made hand.
28:1 to flop a gutshot.
~2:1 to hit your flush/OESD.
~5:1 to hit your gutshot.
You'll fold the flop without a draw or made hand.
You'll fold the river without making your draw.
All streets are capped at 4 bets.
Your hand, if you make it, will hold up 90% of the time.

Fold on the flop: (.77)*2BB
Flop a good draw and miss: (.16)*(2/3)*8BB
Flop a good draw, hit it, lose: (.16)*(1/3)*(.1)*12BB
Flop a made hand and lose: (.035)*(.1)*12BB
Flop a gutshot and miss: (.035)*(5/6)*8BB
Flop a gutshot, hit, lose: (.035)*(1/6)*(.1)*12BB
Total cost per hand you play and lose: ~2.75 BB

% won with good draw: (.16)*(1/3)*(.9)
% won with made hand: (.035)*(.9)
% won with gutshot: (.035)*(1/6)*(.9)
You'll win ~8.5% of the hands you play.

Break-even point: (2.75BB)/(.085)= ~32.5 BB

That is, there to be 32.5 BB in the pot from other people when you win for this to be EV neutral.

PP
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  #12  
Old 12-14-2005, 03:51 PM
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Default Re: Laggiest Game Ever

[ QUOTE ]
There is a common misconception that you should play tightly against loose players. This is wrong, as is mentioned in SSHE.

You could profit in such a game by playing tightly, but that would be far from optimal. You should play more tightly than your opponents, but you should be much looser than in a normal game. The reason is that the players who are capping with 92o are contributing so much dead money that they convert many normally unprofitable hands into profitable hands.

The value of suitedness goes up. The value of connectedness goes up. You do not need implied odds to play low pocket pairs and suited connectors and Axs, as they have enough value without implied odds. You should pitch A7o.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a great post! In these games small pocket pairs and AXs are premium hands, because you are trying to flop sets and nut flushes. IMO, small suited connectors (below 8-9) go down in value a little bit, because they have negative implied odds to a bigger flush (as no one throws away suited trash hands like Q3s). That said, hands like AJ KQ and the like go way up in value, you can and should play them against mulitple raises.
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  #13  
Old 12-14-2005, 04:12 PM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Default Re: Laggiest Game Ever

[ QUOTE ]

I know in TH4AP it states in these games where the pot is capped every street you wait for premium only, AA-QQ, AKs, AQs.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've lent out my copy of THFAP, but if I recall correctly, it doesn't say that. I believe it says that you could profit if you played very tightly, not that it is a good idea. <font color="white">Otherwise, it is wrong.</font>

Could someone quote that excerpt verbatim?
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  #14  
Old 12-14-2005, 04:50 PM
PseudoPserious PseudoPserious is offline
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Default Re: Laggiest Game Ever

I can't quote it verbatim (I'm at work), but it suggests playing AA-QQ and AKs only. JJ-99 and AQs-AJs it says are profitable, but only barely so, and add a ton of variance. It's on pages 213-215. It's specifically describing a game where it's capped 4-way preflop, with multiple bets going in on every street post-flop -- not quite the same as the OP's game.

PP
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  #15  
Old 12-14-2005, 05:18 PM
PseudoPserious PseudoPserious is offline
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Default Re: Laggiest Game Ever

I had my doubts about a hand like A6s, but after doing a similar calculation as above, it looks like the break-even point is also right around 30 BB. In the OP's game, it looks like most pots were going far past that, so Axs is also playable.

Huh. Live and learn.

PP
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  #16  
Old 12-14-2005, 05:34 PM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Default Re: Laggiest Game Ever

[ QUOTE ]
JJ-99 and AQs-AJs it says are profitable, but only barely so, and add a ton of variance.

[/ QUOTE ]
I see two possibilities.

1) You are misremembering it.
2) The book is dead wrong.

AJs is not only barely profitable in a game where 7-8 players are capping preflop.
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  #17  
Old 12-14-2005, 05:49 PM
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Default Re: Laggiest Game Ever

You also need to consider that A6s is a hand that will often get action on the high end when it hits. The reason is that if all 9 seats are playing every hand, often times you will see a lower flush if you hit. When this happens this guarentees averaging over the 30BBs that you need to be profitable.
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  #18  
Old 12-14-2005, 09:04 PM
PseudoPserious PseudoPserious is offline
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Default Re: Laggiest Game Ever

Okay, I'm at home now...

The first section talks about a game where 7 players regularly cap it. It recommends playing AA-QQ and AKs. "Whether you want to splash around with as little as two tens or AJs is up to you. They will win a little, but they also add to your fluctuations."

The second section talks about a game where only 4 players cap it. It recommends not playing middle and lower pairs because "you are not getting your odds to hit a set, even including your implied odds....if there were more players in, then you could play the two nines becaue you would be getting proper odds for your set. However, fold them when you are only against four people."

The last section talks about other things you need to adjust to mentally playing this tightly. It mentions that "there is nothing wrong with playing tighter than what is theoretically proper. It may reduce your win rate a little, but it will reduce your fluctuations greatly...this style will make it less likely that the live ones will quickly make a big win and quit on you."

------------

I think the OP's game is analogous to a loose game (7ish players preflop) where there's a single bet on each street (no raising allowed) and very tiny blinds compared to the size of the bet (1/8 and 1/4 of a small bet).

Isn't it correct to play very tightly in that game? It only costs you a fraction of a bet to sit out a round, and you can't raise on the turn/river when you hit your drawing hands.

PP
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  #19  
Old 12-14-2005, 09:37 PM
zuluking zuluking is offline
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Default Re: Laggiest Game Ever

This sounds like a typical South Louisiana 4-8 game on any given night. I FEAST on games like this. Re-read SSHE's loose tables, loosen up just a tad more, commit it to memory, and go make some money. CO and Button play is key to making a killing at a game like this. Remember, position is GOLDEN in HE.
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  #20  
Old 12-14-2005, 10:51 PM
PseudoPserious PseudoPserious is offline
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Default Re: Laggiest Game Ever

Maybe loosen up, but just a tad, right?

From SSHE:

[ QUOTE ]
p. 78 "It [the game] is passive to somewhat aggressive before the flop (about 15 to 35 percent of pots are raised)...If your game differs from this template, these recommendations will not be accurate."

[/ QUOTE ]
From this, I don't think we can rely on the "loose table" starting chart in SSHE.

[ QUOTE ]
p. 85 "If more than about thirty percent of all hands are raised and reraised before the flop...you may also play 99, AQs-ATs, KQs-KJs, and AQo." [This is in addition to the AA-TT, AKs, and AKo recommended in the preceeding two paragraphs.]

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a little bit looser than the AA-QQ and AKs recommended in HPFAP. The section in HPFAP did say that a few other hands were marginally profitable, but were ignored to reduce variance.

Aren't unsuited hands (even AKo and AQo) at a disadvantage in a multiway pots?

[ QUOTE ]
p. 85 "Even if your opponents are extremely loose and crazy, you cannot play speculative hands profitably if you must pay three or more bets to see the flop."

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this includes hands like Axs and small suited connectors, right?

[ QUOTE ]
p. 85 "Furthermore, to play hands like ATs and KJs profitably for three bets, you must be very sure of your opponents tendencies. If you are not, it is probably best to give them up."

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd argue that, given what this statement implies (that you could read your opponents' hands and flop bets well enough to fold decent hands or manipulate their play), this section in SSHE doesn't really apply to games like the OP's (where several players simply go along with the cap on all streets regardless of hand strength).

I can't decide whether this difference means you can profitably play the speculative hands (your implied odds are probably better), or if it means you should tighten up a bit on the recommended hands played (the weaker hands are no longer profitable).

--------

On the second part of your post...

How does position help you in the OP's original game?

I understand the value of position in a regular game, but in a game where 4+ people are going to the cap on every street, isn't position relatively worthless?

PP
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