Flush draw on flop

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy raise.

You have two callers and a 35% edge in equity. You might get a free card on the turn if you need it. You have to assume that your flush will win here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your opponents are passive, a raise is fine. If they are aggressive, a call is better.

I'm a bit confused about quite a few things, though: you are in MP but last to act -- so you limped in MP with 76s after one limper?

You're 1.9:1 to hit your flush by the river, so you are getting a slight overlay against two callers. However, your flush won't win this quite 1.9:1 times (you'll hit running spades ~3.5% of the time and be up against two pair occasionally -- which has a 4-out redraw against your 9 outer), so the equity edge you have here isn't as great as people would like to make it out to be.

If you're very likely to not get 3-bet and the pot is only 3-handed (so you can't encourage other callers here), then raising is fine.

Regardless, it isn't quite as "easy" as people want to make it out to be. We're talking equity of around 30-32% here on the average, not 35%.

35% is a perfect scenario when neither player has any spades, the bettor doesn't have a set of ducks or two pair, and the caller doesn't have a flush draw.

Hand 1: 30.2757 % [ 00.30 00.00 ] { 7s6s }
Hand 2: 38.4043 % [ 00.34 00.04 ] { 22, KTs, QJs, JTs-J2s, KTo, QJo-Q2o }
Hand 3: 31.3200 % [ 00.27 00.04 ] { KTs, JTs-J3s, KJo-KTo, QTo-Q2o }

Rob

[cowboyzfan]

[ QUOTE ]

Regardless, it isn't quite as "easy" as people want to make it out to be. We're talking equity of around 30-32% here on the average, not 35%.

35% is a perfect scenario when neither player has any spades, the bettor doesn't have a set of ducks or two pair, and the caller doesn't have a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. 35 percent is if you have the nut flush draw, SSH has an example of this. But in the book the draw is to the nut flush, with over cards.

Unless I am missing something, with 30 - 32 percent equity you are not even getting "your fair share" of the equity with two opponents on future bets. Maybe a free card chance makes the raise preferable in the end though.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Regardless, it isn't quite as "easy" as people want to make it out to be. We're talking equity of around 30-32% here on the average, not 35%.

35% is a perfect scenario when neither player has any spades, the bettor doesn't have a set of ducks or two pair, and the caller doesn't have a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. 35 percent is if you have the nut flush draw, SSH has an example of this. But in the book the draw is to the nut flush, with over cards.

Unless I am missing something, with 30 - 32 percent equity you are not even getting "your fair share" of the equity with two opponents on future bets. Maybe a free card makes the raise preferable in the end though.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not the flush over flush that is a concern for your equity as much as the range of outs your opponent's hands can have.

Rob

[meep_42]

Raise. If one folds, fine. If neither folds, even better.
You may get a free card on the turn, you may get a chance to take it down UI on the turn if it gets heads up.

-d

[DeathDonkey]

Easy raise, not close like some are saying. I get free cards all day at 0.50/1 on the turn in situations like this.

-DeathDonkey

[VTDuffman]

I'm going to have to echo the "easy raise" sentiment here. the chances of you being beaten by a better flush here are pretty slim, made moreso by the fact that there's only 2 other people in the hand. The opportunity for the free card on the turn, or even taking the hand down UI on a turn semi-bluff is much more valuable than the risk of being beatn by a bigger flush.

[pokerrookie]

Free card or winning UI on a turn semibluff? Can't have it both ways. If you are raising for a free card, then do it. But don't expect to win UI with this hand. In other words, you can't bet again on the turn if the spade doesn't come. If the other players caught any piece of the flop, middle or low pair, you are getting called. You will not win this unimproved 95% of the time at .5/1 or 1/2. Thus, your raise for a free card would have been a waste of a bet. Especially if they are even half aware of the free play for flush draw concept. Call flop, call turn = 1.5 BB
raise flop, semibluff turn = 2 BB (and as I see it, no better chance for winning). Again, if you had any overcard, then I say easy raise.

[BradleyT]

Even knocking one player out often doesn't do you much good.

Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Qs 2s Jh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7s 6s 263 29.13 640 70.87 0 0.00 0.291
3s Qh 438 48.50 465 51.50 0 0.00 0.485
Ks 9h 202 22.37 701 77.63 0 0.00 0.224

Say you knock K9 out by raising.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qs 2s Jh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7s 6s 335 33.84 655 66.16 0 0.00 0.338
3s Qh 655 66.16 335 33.84 0 0.00 0.662

It costs you 1 sb to gain 4% more equity of a 5sb pot. Your villian gains over 100% of the raise equity. He calls 1sb for an 18% equity increase of a 6sb pot.

[AngelicPenguin]

Where do you get these numbers from? Very interesting info there.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
Where do you get these numbers from? Very interesting info there.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/

Or you can google "Poker Stove" or "Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1" and download either of those.