Calling the river with a boat?

ggbman · #1 04-13-2005, 09:50 PM

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
6 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.83 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls.

River: (12.83 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.83 BB

Comments on all streets appreciated.

GemiNiveK · #2 04-13-2005, 10:41 PM

Without a read on CO (is he stealing often and with crud, or is he a rock that only raises/steals with monsters?), I'd definitely raise, not call... Hell, I think I'd have to cap the river here.

elindauer · #3 04-14-2005, 02:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hell, I think I'd have to cap the river here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you'd be better off taking that ninety bucks, lighting it on fire, and using it to start up the pilot light on your stove. At least then you'll be able to cook the ramen noodles you'll be eating after you're broke.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Eric

DiamondDave · #4 04-14-2005, 01:13 AM

If you raise the flop, on the river you know whether or not your hand is good.

elindauer · #5 04-14-2005, 02:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise the flop, on the river you know whether or not your hand is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wha? Don't you think capping the turn as a huge favorite also accomplished this?

Good luck.
Eric

DeezNutz3 · #6 04-14-2005, 04:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise the flop, on the river you know whether or not your hand is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Taking this into consideration you'll have a much better idea where you are. What hands do you 3 bet him with PF and just call a flop bet here? I don't see many if any. I see one hand that some donks might lead and that is KT which you beat but more times than not he has AQ or JJ.

jfunk · #7 04-14-2005, 01:29 AM

I do believe I agree with just calling this river. Looking at the range of hands villian would three bet the turn and call a cap with (AJ, AQ, AA, QQ, JJ, and maybe QJ) you're only beating AJ, and if he's deccent, he'll think about folding AJ to a river raise.

Otherwise, I would have raised the flop hoping to call a 3-bet and raise the turn, but otherwise looks good.

elindauer · #8 04-14-2005, 02:19 AM

You're so beat. Soooooo beat. Raising would be insanity. You'll see AQ almost every time. Look at the facts.

He raised preflop, just called the 3-bet, and the the stop and go on the flop. AA? No way. Both preflop and flop make no sense for this hand. JJ? Not likely. Check to the guaranteed bet every time I suspect.

AQ trying to prevent KK / QQ / TT from taking a free card? Ok, maybe. QJ trying to fold KK / QQ? Eh, not likely. Total bluff? Maybe.

Now he 3-bets the turn and calls your cap. He's not bluffing. He has a hand.

Now he bets into your cap on the river. AJ? I don't think so. Even a pretty bad hand reader must realize this is not a strong holding given the turn action. No. It's AQ.

Good luck.
Eric

legend42 · #9 04-14-2005, 02:42 AM

I agree it looks a lot like AQ (although nobody's mentioned KT, which I wouldn't completely discount, plus maybe even a gambling Asxs- though he'd probably check-call the river with either of those).

I think the call is fine- especially since you'd probably have to call a 3-bet, and your raise might not get paid off, you need to be ahead of a hand he'd call a raise with at least 66% the time to make a raise profitable. Which I don't think you are.

(I guess you could reduce that % a bit with the chance that he might fear AA, and not 3-bet AQ, but I still prefer a call)

steveyz · #10 04-14-2005, 04:12 AM

You're beat most of the time by AQ or QJ, probably AQ. Calling is by far the best option on the river and hope he has AJ or KT