The Master Plan

[suited_ace]

Yeah, there's a reason why I need $6k in two months, but the world will not come to its end if I don't succeed. If you're too curious about the reason, I can PM you. I don't think it's really relevant to the forum, though.

I still have lots of room for improvement as a poker player, so my options are also related to the fact that I want to be learning as I do this. I wish I had enough time to play some NL ring to improve my post-flop play, but I just don't right now.

My plan is to make my way back to the $22s ASAP and eventually move up to the $33s (I'll probably do that when I feel that I can have sustainable results at that level 4-tabling in sets. I would then proceed to 4-table continuously). This would make my goal of $6k almost impossible to reach, but I have one last trick in my sleeve: MTTs. I want to play at least 1 MTT per day during this period. Variance is huge there, but it also opens the possibility of hitting a big score.

It's not a *great* plan, but it's a plan. I'll let you know how it goes...

[bennies]

dam, I hoped noone would ask this since I'm talking out of my as.

I guess I'm under the impression that most folks who still play at the skins are: a) european sharks from eurobet, or: b) players experienced enough to know that rakeback exists.

That's a mean possy to pit oneself against...

[suited_ace]

[ QUOTE ]
dam, I hoped noone would ask this since I'm talking out of my as.

I guess I'm under the impression that most folks who still play at the skins are: a) european sharks from eurobet, or: b) players experienced enough to know that rakeback exists.

That's a mean possy to pit oneself against...

[/ QUOTE ]


Even @ the $6s and $11s?

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
dam, I hoped noone would ask this since I'm talking out of my as.

I guess I'm under the impression that most folks who still play at the skins are: a) european sharks from eurobet, or: b) players experienced enough to know that rakeback exists.

That's a mean possy to pit oneself against...

[/ QUOTE ]


Even @ the $6s and $11s?

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I honestly have no idea. But since we know for certain that PP-people at these levels play like they're blindfolded...

edit: oops, no clever poker-jargon-joke intended...

[Ixnert]

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30 tournies a day as an average for the next 2 months would probably drive me insane. I'm more than comfortable with 20 / day (including breaks, days that life is more important than poker, etc).

I can play 40 tournies a day for about a week and after that I start really feeling the grind. I think 1200 tournies is a realistic number for 2 months.

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Then you'll need to move higher than the $22s -- even playing 1200 22s, with nothing lower, you're looking at less than $4000 profit.

I'm going to assume right up front that you really need $6000 in 2 months, and that that's non-negotiable. I really think your best plan would be to re-check whether that's really the case, because it's a long shot and you'll quite possibly hate poker after what it takes to get there. I think your second-best plan would be to commit yourself to more than 1200 tournaments, because if you stick to that, you're going to have to take more risk than you're comfortable with to get to your goal.

That said:

I'd start at the $11s if I were you -- to have any significant chance of making this goal, you're going to need to move up quickly and perhaps accept a bit higher ROR than you might otherwise be comfortable with. Starting at the 6s subjects you to higher rake and is taking up time where you'd probably be more profitable at the 11s. You've still got 24 buyins, which gives you a pretty low ROR if your $11 ROI is really 20%. Similarly, you're going to have to move up again at what might be an uncomfortably low BR for the $22s and then the $33s.

I'd play at $11s until you hit 30 $22 buyins, $22s until you have 40 $33 buyins, and if you make it, $55s once you reach 60 buyins for that level.

That's 182 $11s and 200 $22s to get to the $33s. Assuming you can maintain a 12% ROI at the 33s (if you can't, stick with your 15% at the 22s), that's 496 more at the 33s, with you at $3300. If you can shift up to the $55s at 8% (probably optimistic, but again, if you can't do this, stick with the lower level, you're making more money), you'd need 614 more tournaments to hit $6000.

That's a total of 1492 tournaments to $6000, about 25/day, using very optimistic assumptions about your ROI as you move up and taking you to levels you're probably not comfortable with at a speed you're probably even less comfortable with. But unless you do all of those things, you have, frankly, no shot to make your goal barring an incredible heater.

You might improve your chances somewhat by increasing your number of tables; I'd recommend not jumping straight from 4 to 8, but you do want to start in on increasing tables from day one so that you can drop back to a more comfortable number when you move up in buy-in without throwing yourself too far off course of your goal.

But I'll repeat what I said at the beginning -- your wisest course, IMO, is to re-evaluate your goal.

[sng-sam]

I am in almost the exact same situation. After killing the 20s and 30s in August I have hit a MAJOR downswing worsened by some tilty play. I have about 200 BR and I need about 1500 by the end of November. Don't know if I'll make it but I think I can do it. I'm 2 tabling 11s now. ROR be damned I haven't made a deposit since Easter Sunday. If I have to make one before next Easter I'll be dissapointed but I have made alot of money this year at poker so I'll get over it.

Straight Flushes,

SAM

PS. Suited Ace PM me and we can support each other.

[citanul]

first thing you should do is double up the roll on party blackjack.

that's the first step to any good plan.

c

[sng-sam]

How the hell do you think I got into this mess? DUH!

Straight Flushes,

SAM

PS I got rid of the icons...

[The Yugoslavian]

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first thing you should do is double up the roll on party blackjack.

that's the first step to any good plan.

c

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The Raptor "Surefire way to bust my roll in one sitting" plan? It is, after all, his specialty, [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img].

Yugoslav

[suited_ace]

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To op: If you have played the 33-55s over a long stretch and feel you can beat them, then I think your plan is fine...Of course I think money goals are stupid, but I'll leave that alone.

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I'm fully aware that my $6k goal will be very, very hard to achieve. It's a personal choice, though. My whole life I tried doing stuff that I really shouldn't, and ended up doing great things by falling short of doing the impossible.

I have very few games played @ the $33s and $55s. I have no data to back me up here, but I think that I can beat the $33s 4-tabling, but my ROI wouldn't be very high. Going to the $55s would just be suicidal. My post-flop game needs to improve before I do that. My ITM game could use some work too.