River...

krishanleong · #1 09-25-2005, 01:09 PM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $10. CO posts a blind of $10.
Hero raises, 1 fold, CO (poster) 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero caps, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

River: (10.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Villian is reasonable. In the hand I accidently chose the correct play. I'm posting to verify. Please post thoughts since betting or checkraising is not a simple decision.

Krishan

#2 09-25-2005, 01:23 PM

Basically in order for the villain, if he is indeed decent, to bet this river I think he'd need at minimum TPGK. So QK is about the bottom of the range imo. He's obviously going to bet the river with a flush or overpair as well.

He'd raise the turn with AK, 88-TT, AQ/QK, QQ, KK, AA, or a big flush draw.

The ones he wouldn't bet the river with are probably 88/99/TT/AK. He will bet the river with KK/AA/AQ/QK.

Now another important question would be if you do lead into him what hands does he have to have in order for you to get a 3 bet in? Pretty much, just a flush. (Not counting QQ which you obviously lose to).

Seeing as how there are a lot of hands he's checking behind on the river with, I think the guaranteed 1 bet with a possible 3 bet is going to be much better here than hopefully 2 bets but maybe nothing.

I lead this river.

imitation · #3 09-25-2005, 01:25 PM

Given the preflop cap and the decision for CO to wait until the turn to raise I think he has atleast top pair, but with the flush being completed leading probably just gets called, I would CR because a 7 will probably 3-bet and then you can cap.

Stack · #4 09-25-2005, 01:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is reasonable

[/ QUOTE ]

He's a poster, so I assume you've played against him before. I think more precise reads are needed to make this hand more interesting.

Otherwise, I'd say just bet and 3bet. I'd hate to see this checked through. I don't think he'll bet a 7, TT, 99, 88, overpair, AQ, KQ for you when the third spade comes on the river. If he made flush, he'll probably raise you allowing you to 3bet.

krishanleong · #5 09-25-2005, 01:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Basically in order for the villain, if he is indeed decent, to bet this river I think he'd need at minimum TPGK. So QK is about the bottom of the range imo. He's obviously going to bet the river with a flush or overpair as well.

He'd raise the turn with AK, 88-TT, AQ/QK, QQ, KK, AA, or a big flush draw.

The ones he wouldn't bet the river with are probably 88/99/TT/AK. He will bet the river with KK/AA/AQ/QK.

Now another important question would be if you do lead into him what hands does he have to have in order for you to get a 3 bet in? Pretty much, just a flush. (Not counting QQ which you obviously lose to).

Seeing as how there are a lot of hands he's checking behind on the river with, I think the guaranteed 1 bet with a possible 3 bet is going to be much better here than hopefully 2 bets but maybe nothing.

I lead this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice analysis. I think AA and maybe KK will raise if I lead. Everything else looks right. This raise is either a free showdown raise with a weak hand or a wait till turn to extract value with a strong hand. Against these two types of hands (which dominates villian's range) leading is superior to a check raise because you will often get to 3-bet when he has a strong hand and he may crying call with a weak one.

Anything substantial I'm missing?

Krishan

TStoneMBD · #6 09-25-2005, 01:41 PM

i think the correct play is certainly checkraise, but bet/3betting is a somewhat close second. with the board completing a flush and putting up a J as a scare card i dont think youll get raised that often by KK or AA. a good player isnt going to donk the river with something that cant beat those hands unless he intends to fold to a raise. you lose 4 bets when against QQ by 3betting and you lose 3bets when against QQ by checkraising.

krishanleong · #7 09-25-2005, 01:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i think the correct play is certainly checkraise, but bet/3betting is a somewhat close second. with the board completing a flush and putting up a J as a scare card i dont think youll get raised that often by KK or AA. a good player isnt going to donk the river with something that cant beat those hands unless he intends to fold to a raise. you lose 4 bets when against QQ by 3betting and you lose 3bets when against QQ by checkraising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, it's a bugger that the river was the flush card. If it wasn't what do you think about leading?

Krishan

TStoneMBD · #8 09-25-2005, 01:55 PM

its much closer without the flush card, but i wouldnt do it without reads or stats. if villain has 2.4AF or higher than i bet/3bet. of course that varies depending on his vpip but assume 2.4AF for a 27VPIP type guy.