3/6 QQ sets up on the river

Luzion · #1 09-13-2005, 01:41 AM

Villain was 21/7.9/0.56 over 30 hands or so. 3bet river or no? I didnt really pay attention to his tendencies or betting patterns, but I figured he had either QJo, or some big suited hand that caught the runner runner.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, MP calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (6.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, MP caps, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

bottomset · #2 09-13-2005, 02:07 AM

I think its good, though the cap sucks for your chances.

deepsquat · #3 09-13-2005, 06:18 AM

I think u have to 3bet here. In the longrun its +EV imo

jason_t · #4 09-13-2005, 06:32 AM

What did you put CO on when he popped the river? I'm not sure if QJ is in that pfr range.

Here's hoping he had a slowplayed JJ, but I doubt it.

Nick C · #5 09-13-2005, 07:31 AM

For QJ specifically, only 3 combos are available, so I think a flush is more likely than that hand. (Also, with top pair, MP might have found a raise earlier in the hand.)

However, we should include hands like AQ/KQ as possibilities, which is 8 more combos right there, and the deep slowplay of JJ that Jason T mentions is possible as well, so I think I like the river 3-bet, even though our sketchy read says Villain is passive.

I wouldn't like it when Villain capped, though.

I don't know. I would have trouble just calling with top set after gettting raised only once on a board that isn't that scary. It's possible just calling is best, though, since Villain seems to be passive, there aren't really that many worse hands he could have hit on the river that are available, and I don't think we want the river to get capped.

Well, that was an indecisive response, wasn't it? I guess I'm not really sure what's best.

jason_t · #6 09-13-2005, 07:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]

However, we should include hands like AQ/KQ as possibilities, which is 8 more combos right there, and the deep slowplay of JJ that Jason T mentions is possible as well, so I think I like the river 3-bet, even though our sketchy read says Villain is passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I got to elaborate though I'm not sure if a passive villain would raise this river with a set with the board flushing. Also, passive guys tend to be pretty straightforward and a long slowplay with JJ is pretty unlikely. With JJ I would expect him to have called the flop and popped the turn.

I'm pretty sure I don't like the river 3-bet unless we're folding to a cap.

deepsquat · #7 09-13-2005, 07:38 AM

i wonder if ppl would answer differently if the action was cutoff after hero's 3bet? MP's cap makes this a flush almost 100% likely.

I liked your response Jason, its pretty hard to put villain on anything except a flush. JJ would raise the turn and QJ is statistically unlikely. I really want to 3bet this river but looking at the board and villains cap, its hard to see what we beat.

Luzion · #8 09-13-2005, 02:25 PM

Yes, honestly I was pretty sure he had a flush as soon as check/raised me. I really doubted he had QJ or was slowplaying a set. A flush was the only logical thing I felt he could be check/raising with. But I still 3betted because its not like my reads are great.

Still, I hate these situations because it seems like a win one more bet, or lose two.

baronzeus · #9 09-13-2005, 04:17 PM

It's close. I think AQ here might raise, maybe even KQ on the river. He's "passive" but 30 hands doesn't mean much more than 0 hands. I also think we can't take 66 out of his range or a slowplayed JJ.

Because of that, I 3bet. Calling a cap is also a necessity.