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  #1  
Old 09-16-2005, 02:27 PM
geormiet geormiet is offline
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Default 3 betting turn out of position without a river plan

8 handed online game

The BB is unknown.

I open raise in the sb with 66, bb calls. The flop is 558, two hearts.

I bet, bb calls quickly.

Turn is an offsuit 3. I bet, bb raises very quickly.

Due to the speed at which he acted, and the circumstances, I feel like my pair is probably good a great portion of the time.

Calling down is an easy way to play it. However, he could easy have some stupid overcards that I would be happy to have him fold for 1 more bet.

Anyone prefer a 3 bet? If so, what do you do on the river when he calls?
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Old 09-16-2005, 02:41 PM
stoxtrader stoxtrader is offline
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Default Re: 3 betting turn out of position without a river plan

the 3 bet is a mistake. it is either a 0 EV bet for you (he has overcards and is getting roughly the correct odds to call or fold). or very expensive (he already has you beat).

plus you lose a bet on the river from induced bluffs.
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Old 09-16-2005, 02:47 PM
Lmn55d Lmn55d is offline
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Default Re: 3 betting turn out of position without a river plan

I really don't see how this would be a 0 EV bet for hero. Villain is put to a 0 EV decision, but doesn't the EV of the bet for hero depend solely on his equity. In other words, if his equity is greater than 50% it is a +EV bet. Maybe I'm missing something....
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Old 09-16-2005, 02:54 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
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Default Re: 3 betting turn out of position without a river plan

That's a very enlightening perspective, Stox. Lmn, is, of course, correct in that the EV of the proposition bet is positive. It is the old flush draw question: the player on the flush draw is getting wonderful odds (++EV)to call, but the player with best equity is always correct to bet. However, in this situation, Stox's further evaluation is (IMO) correct. You're either costing yourself quite a bit or getting the same bet you'd get on his river bluff.

CSC
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Old 09-16-2005, 02:56 PM
geormiet geormiet is offline
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Default Re: 3 betting turn out of position without a river plan

I also agree. This is a good, eye-opening analysis.
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