PF question: suited junk in the bb vs pfr

[DavidC]

I've had a couple of hands today where I had 53s and T6s in the BB, two loose limpers and then the button raises and sB folds, or the SB raises after the button folds (raiser being either LAP or SLPP).

I folded both, getting 5:1, because:

-The odds of getting a four-flush are like 8.5:1?

-I don't know the odds of hitting the flush on the flop.

-I think I could probably get one of the limpers for two bets pf (mine+PFR's), but I'm not sure about the other limper.

-If I pump this flush draw, it's going to trigger a rake that's going to cut significantly into the pot when I have a small edge (if any).

In the case where the SB is the raiser, I'm going to have to call throughout the hand to max EV, and my implied odds will suffer.

---

Does this seem reasonable?

Anyone have an answer on the flush / four-flush odds?

--Dave.

[DavidC]

taking a stab at the flush odds:

(9*8*7) / (50 * 49 * 48)

That, divided by 3! (3*2*1)

= 504 / 117600 (is this the total number of flops?)

/ 6


~= 0.0007143

0.07%

Hmm... seems weird.

...

ahem... Uh, I lost two suited cards somewhere. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Revising the top to 11*10*9:

= (990 / 117600)...

D'oh! Revising total # flops to reflect the # of ways you can get the same flop rather than dividing the whole top of the equation:

117600 / 6 = 19600

990/19600 = 5% (a little more)... therefore 19:1 shot of making a flush...

That sounds better. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DavidC]

Taking a shot at the four-flush odds:

19600 (total flops)

Four-flush: 11 * 10 * 41
=~ 4000

=23%?

That seems pretty high.

Anyone have any corrections on this?

Anyone know any good books on this (King Yao)?

[Entity]

Two looser limpers, Button raises, SB folds, you're in the BB -- that's not 5:1. If you call it'll generally be 7.5:1, since the pot will be 4-ways (8.5SB) and you're calling off 1SB. I'd call with either of those hands. I'm not calling with T5s, FWIW, though, so T6s is certainly close.

I'm more likely to call when any of the players are likely to overplay their hands postflop. The better the players involved are, the more rigid my standards are.

Rob

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Two looser limpers, Button raises, SB folds, you're in the BB -- that's not 5:1. If you call it'll generally be 7.5:1, since the pot will be 4-ways (8.5SB) and you're calling off 1SB. I'd call with either of those hands. I'm not calling with T5s, FWIW, though, so T6s is certainly close.

I'm more likely to call when any of the players are likely to overplay their hands postflop. The better the players involved are, the more rigid my standards are.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

D'oh! I'm pretty tired this afternoon... It's showing.

You're right about the pot odds being sweeter.

Any idea what the odds are to flop a four-flush though?

(And I didn't miss what you said about how well they play either...)

--Dave.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Two looser limpers, Button raises, SB folds, you're in the BB -- that's not 5:1. If you call it'll generally be 7.5:1, since the pot will be 4-ways (8.5SB) and you're calling off 1SB. I'd call with either of those hands. I'm not calling with T5s, FWIW, though, so T6s is certainly close.

I'm more likely to call when any of the players are likely to overplay their hands postflop. The better the players involved are, the more rigid my standards are.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

D'oh! I'm pretty tired this afternoon... It's showing.

You're right about the pot odds being sweeter.

Any idea what the odds are to flop a four-flush though?

(And I didn't miss what you said about how well they play either...)

--Dave.

[/ QUOTE ]

8.1:1 of flopping a flush draw, 118:1 of flopping a flush.

You've also got straight potential with both of those hands and the obvious pair/2pr outs.

Rob

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Two looser limpers, Button raises, SB folds, you're in the BB -- that's not 5:1. If you call it'll generally be 7.5:1, since the pot will be 4-ways (8.5SB) and you're calling off 1SB. I'd call with either of those hands. I'm not calling with T5s, FWIW, though, so T6s is certainly close.

I'm more likely to call when any of the players are likely to overplay their hands postflop. The better the players involved are, the more rigid my standards are.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

D'oh! I'm pretty tired this afternoon... It's showing.

You're right about the pot odds being sweeter.

Any idea what the odds are to flop a four-flush though?

(And I didn't miss what you said about how well they play either...)

--Dave.

[/ QUOTE ]

8.1:1 of flopping a flush draw, 118:1 of flopping a flush.

You've also got straight potential with both of those hands and the obvious pair/2pr outs.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Where'd you learn this stuff? Is there a thread, site of book that I can peruse?

--Dave.

[Entity]

Here's a start.

http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php

[Mercantides]

You're 990/117600 calculation was correct. You shouldn't divide 117600 by 6. The fact that the order of the cards doesn't matter is already taken into account in the original calculation.

The flop is equally likely to come up Jd10d9d as it is to come up 9d10dJd or any other permutation of the Jd, 10d, and 9d. The odds of each is 1 in 117600. The odds of the flop containing the Jd, 10d, and 9d is therefore 6/117600.

To calculate the odds is straightforward. You've got three cards and they all have to come up on the flop. So it's 3/50 * 2/49 * 1/48 = 6/117600.

[nozyrev]

odds of completing the flush by the flop is 118:1

there are 50 choose 3 = 19,600 flops
and you can make your flush in 11 choose 3 = 165 possible ways
so odds are 19,600/165 -1 = 118:1