AJo UTG

No stats available but so far MP3 had seemed like a decent TAG, one of the better players on the table

BB is just another LPP-fish.

My plan for the flop was to fold to a BB bet, or to certainly fold if it was 2 back to me. MP seemed to be making a continuation bet so with the average sized pot i felt it appropriate to peel.

The turn left me WA/WB? against what seemed to be a fairly aggro vil so i felt my safest route (avoiding 2BB vs 1BB mistakes in betting) was c/c c/c.

Thoughts? Comments?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

River: (11.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB

[Jingleheimer]

If MP3 is a decent TAG, what does he 3 bet with? What do you 3 bet with?

JJ-AA, AQs AKs AKo?

If you give yourself 3 outs for the overs, you don't have the odds to peel. You may be drawing nearly dead and A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] may not be outs for you. Fold flop.

Once you make it to the turn, I like the call down.

[McGahee]

The pot size not withstanding I think the flop is a fold. You're basically praying he has TT because if he doesn't you have no more than 3 outs with no backdoor draws. It may sound weak but there's no getting around the fact that getting AJo 3-bet by a TAG sucks as you're almost always dominated.

thanks guys, when calling the 3bet i was ready to fold unless i hit the flop, but the pot just seemed too bloated to let go off so easy. thanks for assuring me off the correct decision.

Flop: (X SB) 9, 9, 6 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

to make it interesting, what number would you say X would have to be to make that flop call?

If MP3 is a decent tag, there's very few hands that he's 3-betting preflop: AA-TT, AK, AQ, AJs, KQs, possibly something like 99 if he's capable of that type of iso-raise.

MP3s bet on the flop doesn't tell you much. However, when MP3 raises the turn after the donk bet and a call, it's unlikely that he's raising two players with KK-TT or KQs (I don't think he raises the turn with KQ of diamonds). I can't imagine him raising the turn with anything worse than aces up. If he has you outkicked, you have three outs (the 3 remaining Js) and another three (the fourth A and the other 2 9s) to a split

The only hands I can see MP3 having that aren't ahead of you are AJs and ATs. Even if he has one of those hands, you're vulnerable to a third 9 or a K or Q counterfeiting your kicker on the river. There's also the less likely case that he has a nut flush draw, in which case you have to dodge several more cards on the river.

I call the turn and may consider folding the river UI if I'm EXTREMELY confident in my "decent TAG" read; however, that pot is probably too big to fold for one more bet.

[deucesevenoff]

Since the turn and river are the important streets in this hand (at least I think that's what you're asking about) let's try to put villain on a range here...Assume that since he three bet preflop he has one of the following hands: AK, AQ, AJ, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or 1010. By the three-bet preflop logic I think we can assume that he does not have a nine. Quads are a possibility, but if that's such a rare case that I think we can safely ignore it.

Since you have an ace, there are 8 (2 Aces and 4 kings) ways he can have AK, as well as AQ. AA has one way of being out. So that is 17 combinations of which you are way behind. KK, QQ, and 1010 both have six ways of being out, JJ each has 3 ways of being out. So with straight probabilities we are behind 17 hands and way ahead of 21 hands.

Just because the guy raised on the turn after the ace came out does not necessarily mean that he is not afraid of the ace. He might think that the BB is just bluffing at an ace or somethign like that. He could also just be a donk. Or he could in fact have AA/AK/AQ. Not entirely sure.

Seems like an okay spot to apply this variation of WA/WB since the chances of us being WA are approximately the same as the chances of us being WB- the fact that there are more ways (mathematically) of us being WA than WB I think is offset by the fact that the guys still DID raise after the ace came out.

Sorry for the rambling, but I like the way you played the hand (I probably would have done the same thing)...the only thing I'm concerned about are the times he checks behind on the river with a hand we beat- WA/WB line usually means that we bet the river and fold to a river raise. What do other people think?

[Jingleheimer]

[ QUOTE ]


Flop: (X SB) 9, 9, 6 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

to make it interesting, what number would you say X would have to be to make that flop call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's look at the hands:
Given this range: JJ-AA, AQs AKs AKo

You have 3 outs vs JJ QQ KK, 3 outs vs AQs and AKs (not [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) and 3 outs vs AKo. Looks like 3 outs there. If AQs or AKs is diamonds, you have 2 outs and still could be rivered by a diamond (meaning that your "outs" are not wins). And we haven't even talked about BB yet. If BB has a 9, you need runners, if BB has diamonds, then even if Villain doesn't, you have 2 outs.

We could go through and do hand combinations, but I am giving myself &lt; 3 outs here and so I think I'd need 16 or 17SB in pot to even consider it. I think this flop is a very easy fold vs a PF TAG 3 bettor.

i love you guys......

[ QUOTE ]
I call the turn and may consider folding the river UI if I'm EXTREMELY confident in my "decent TAG" read

[/ QUOTE ]
I wasnt overly confident, it was over a fairly small sample without stats. however he had been showing down good hands so far and hadnt done anything out of line with a TAG image

[ QUOTE ]
AK, AQ, AJ, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or 1010

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is a decent range, possibly AJ AT even 88 or 77 could be discounted but considered possible.

[ QUOTE ]
the only thing I'm concerned about are the times he checks behind on the river with a hand we beat- WA/WB line usually means that we bet the river and fold to a river raise. What do other people think?

[/ QUOTE ]

i bet/fold very few rivers, and i certainly wasnt willing to risk it here. i think there is a chance he raises AJ/AT or even KK or QQ (he has given no indication of slowing down) particularly considering my bet really would seem to come from nowhere and could be seen as a pure bluff on a missed straight or flush draw. i think this factor is significant enough that even if we were raised on the river we still must call. as we are behind the majority of the time i think a check/call line is probably more appropriate, putting 1BB instead of 2BB in on the river.

i also think there is a good chance he checks behind with hands like AK/AQ at this level being scared of a sandbagged 9; im not sure how this impacts on our analysis.

to the idea of check/folding the river ui, i really think that there is enough money in the pot to stick around and sheriff.

[checkmate36]

Would limping pre-flop be bad?

[Mathieu]

Flop: Your hand is in bad shape against his 3 betting range. Geez it would probably be in bad shape even against is pref-flop raising range. Even if he is making a continuation bet, he most likely has you dominated and "improving" might be costly. On average you have a little less than 3 outs here. Clear fold even with 11.5-1.

Here you have to call BB's bet given the size of the pot. Once MP3 raised, this is again a clear fold. He has no reasons to raise an underpair here. If he is raising he has the A with most likely a kicker better than a J, so fold.

Edit: forgot about your hidden outs, you have roughly 3 out to win and 3 outs to split (maybe more if he 3 bets AQ) since you are getting about 10-1 plus implied odds, you can call and fold the river UI.