River decision

zPro · #1 09-08-2005, 10:23 PM

Recently sat down.
No read on the BB
SB is Laggish.

Absolute Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, MP calls.

Turn: (8 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB 3-bets, MP calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (21 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, MP folds, Hero ?????

Greg J · #2 09-08-2005, 10:48 PM

Well the reason to call is to get sb to overcall. The reason to raise is to get BB to call another bet with a worse hand (with sb possibly calling too to make it worth it). My first instinct here is to go for the overcall. That is my "on the fly" answer. Now to analyze it qualitatively:

There is a great chance you are chopping and if that is the case you want the overcall, and you make that less likely by raising. Worst case, BB has AK -- this is highly unlikely IMO. Best case, BB has 2 pair or something, and you scoop the whole thing. If that is the case you could drive out SB with a raise, in which case raising didn't net you anything anyhow. So why I like a call here: 1) likely chop, 2) overcall by SB = good, 3) raising puts you at a small, but unnecessary risk with little potential reward. I think my first reaction was right.

teajay · #3 09-08-2005, 10:50 PM

Go nuts.

Other than that, ni'han sir.

teajay · #4 09-08-2005, 10:53 PM

Hmmm, interesting post. A lot more thought than I really put into it. I sort of like the call too.

But what about the odd chance that SB's got two pair and would call the raise anyway, and/or one of our opponents has the ass end of this straight and likes to donate money?

Greg J · #5 09-08-2005, 11:15 PM

I knew someone was gonna ask me to justify this further! Grrrrrrrr! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I guess it's possible sb has some raggedy 2 pair. I think it's more possible he will have a single pair, and a raise prompts him to fold where he would have called. I think there is a good chance he has a busted flush draw with a tiny piece of the board -- just enough to call one bet but not 2 in this large pot.