Bad Beat Jackpot +EV?

#1 10-11-2005, 07:35 AM

Not sure what forum to post this in, so I'm trying here. How much would the jackpot have to be worth, so that playing the badbeat jackpot tables on Party would be +EV?

RoundTower · #2 10-11-2005, 08:28 AM

It depends on how bad a player you are. If you're not all that bad, maybe $100 would be enough. If you play badly enough, $100,000 wouldn't do it.

stigmata · #3 10-11-2005, 09:35 AM

He means in comparison to the normal tables. E.g. how big does the jackpot have to be to theoritically overcome the increased rake.

I fount the answer by clicking on search and searching in the last year, in subject only, for: +party +jackpot -"Re:"

If you look about 2/3 of the way down this page:

http://www.bonuswhores.com/party-poker.php

#4 10-11-2005, 03:31 PM

With many players willing to see the flop with suited connectors from any position, there is also some hidden EV here to be taken.

Or I could be completely wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

stigmata · #5 10-11-2005, 05:35 PM

Only if you exercise good table selection. A fishy table is more likely to hit the jackpot. Otherwise you have the same chance of winning as anyone else.

I guess it does mean you have a higher chance of winning playing lower stakes.

RoundTower · #6 10-11-2005, 05:43 PM

I don't know how these numbers were arrived at, but they should be higher for a tight player and lower for a loose player. A jackpot will also increase your variance. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but people here don't seem to like it.

stigmata · #7 10-11-2005, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know how these numbers were arrived at, but they should be higher for a tight player and lower for a loose player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats a good point. Of course, you only need to be at the table to get some share, but tightness needs to be factored in somewhere. It does look like they factored in the limit problem though.

#8 10-11-2005, 06:48 PM

Oops... yeah, my previous post was a bit ambiguous. I meant that with potentially more people playing speculative types of hands, it may be a little more +EV to play these tables just from that perspective alone (forget about the jackpot).

I do understand what you're saying about possible increased variance. Good point.

TheHammer24 · #9 10-11-2005, 06:58 PM

IT should be noted that the BBJ players are party are comparatively worse than the Ring Game players at the same limit, adding some hidden EV>

MyTurn2Raise · #10 10-14-2005, 06:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
IT should be noted that the BBJ players are party are comparatively worse than the Ring Game players at the same limit, adding some hidden EV>

[/ QUOTE ]

I echo this point, at least for 2/4.
I looked at it in pokertracker when I was only playing party for bad beat/ bonus clearing and the skins otherwise. My aliases were not coupled, so I compared the differences and it was significant over 20k hands at each level. The BBJ tables had about 5% higher VPIP and 1% lower PFR...much more loose passive, +EV.