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Old 10-10-2005, 10:01 PM
chopchoi chopchoi is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 378
Default Re: 5/10 flop puzzle

How broad is very broad? like random? If so, then there's a 1/8 chance that one of the loosey goosey's has a J, and a (3/47)(2/46)2 chance that one has 33. The reasonable players have little chance of holding a J (unless they have JJ) but the last one has a much better chance of holding 33.
Let's say there's a 1 in 6 chance that a J or 33 is out, In which case you are drawing practically dead.

A player has about a 16:1 chance of being dealt a pocket pair, but if they call a 6xbb raise, that chance goes up a lot. How much, I don't know. so, against 4 random hands, there would be a 1 in 4 chance that a pocket pair was out.
Let's say a pocket pair is 3x as likely among players who call the PF raise, so you figure there is a 3/4 chance someone holds a pocket pair.

So, it looks like you're behind about 90% of the time here. You have no hope of making money by being called by a worse hand. All You can hope for is to fold a better hand if it is out, or to suck out if they call you.

Yo have about a 25% chance of sucking out against a pocket pair, but there's that 1/6 of the time you're dead, and 5% of the time they fill up, so call it 20%. So, 10% Of the time a push wins you the pot with the best hand. x% you fold a pocket pair and win, and of the remainder you aren't dead and manage a successful suckout 20% of the time.

I don't know how big x is, but it would need to be pretty big to warrant a push here. I can't think anymore, but I'm convinced you should fold.
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