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#1
09-07-2005, 01:05 PM
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If you had $25k and needed $100k
A hypothetical question, although for a while, I was afraid it was real, so I had to put some serious thought into it....here's the scenario:
My brother was in a major car accident. He was 23, and had no insurance. My parents were able to contribute, but we were still about $100k short of what we needed to give him the proper care to save his life. I had $25k, and about three days to figure out a way to turn it into $100k. We really had no other options. If you had to take a shot like this, what would you do? Please forget for a moment that there are other options besides Vegas (we obviously figured out a way). I had to think about this a lot, and it still intrigues me from time to time. What casino game to you try...do you just go big early, or try to build? I leaned towards blackjack, as I know the game well...to the point of having learned to count cards, etc. My problem is that I am not a great card counter, and I'm not going for the long run here. This is all short term...high risk of ruin. What is the best approach? 
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#4
09-07-2005, 01:22 PM
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Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
Taking odds does not change the HA!!!
the HA is fixed and no matter how much odds you take it is still the same as it was before you took any odds!
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#5
09-07-2005, 01:30 PM
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Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
[ QUOTE ]
Taking odds does not change the HA!!! the HA is fixed and no matter how much odds you take it is still the same as it was before you took any odds! [/ QUOTE ] I suppose the wizard of odds is wrong then.
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#6
09-07-2005, 02:17 PM
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Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
I think what he means is, taking odds does not change the house advantage of the original Pass Line bet, which still remains at 1.41% no matter how much odds you place behind it.
the COMBINED house edge of the odds and pass line can be reduced by taking as much as possible, but the TOTAL EXPECTATION to the house remains the same since you have to risk a higher amount overall to lower that house edge in the first place. this is why you double down in blackjack according to basic strategy even when your chances of winning the hand are lowered. the house advantage increases but so does your expectation on that particular hand. however, in craps there is very little you can do (if anything) to alter the long-term expectation of the pass line bet. the main thing that odds do is increase volatility of outcome for both the player and the house. this is why the multipliers are capped even though mathematically it doesn't make a difference to either party.
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#7
09-09-2005, 06:35 AM
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Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
Regarding the whole craps HA with odds debate, at the end of the day, this would be the best way to make money. The reason why is because the big money on the odds would be an even money proposition. Basically, if you bet $100 on pass, you could put 10k behind (with 100X odds) and that 10k would be an even money bet. The problem is that the variance is huge. Whatever number the shooter throws, you are more like to hit a 7 than any other number. So percentage wise, it's the best bet. Results wise, you may want to find a bet where the results themselves are in the form of half wins and half losses, such as baccarat, blackjack, or distant thirdly roulette.
But truthfully, when in a situation where you need to make a lot of money in a short amount of time, we should take a page from every 80's teen movie and throw a bitchin' party (before the parents get back into town, of course).
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#8
09-09-2005, 08:45 AM
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Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
In all honesty I would say that the best way to make 100k in a short period is going to be by illegal means. If my brothers life was on the line you can bet that I am going to be out running drugs or whatever else it takes to get that money. If it was the last day and I was still short I would put on the ski mask and find the rest of it.
Theres no way in hell I would let one of my family members die because of money. I may be in prison for trying but I damn sure wouldnt sit around and hope to win some gamble.
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#9
09-09-2005, 11:45 AM
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Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
[ QUOTE ]
If my brothers life was on the line you can bet that I am going to be out running drugs or whatever else it takes to get that money. [/ QUOTE ] I saw a really good movie based on that premise. It was called Half-Baked. Have you ever eaten Denny's Grand Slam breakfast... on WEED?
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