Overqueens in a big pot

Azhrarn · #1 07-05-2005, 09:50 PM

Early hand at a table. No individual reads, but the table seems looser than average, normal aggression.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP2 3-bets, 3 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero caps, MP2 calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, SB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Here's where it gets interesting. Once he raises, I think I'm solidly behind MP2's hand range here, and the others are coming along for the ride. Even if he's semibluffing with AQ or AK, he's got a number of outs against me. Anyone like a 3-bet here? I decide to call and see what the turn brings.

Turn: (12.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero...

So what's the best plan of attack here? Include a river plan as well. My instinct was to check-call until I got a clearer sign that I was beat, but I suspect I often default to that line too quickly. Thoughts?

wildwood · #2 07-06-2005, 12:36 AM

You're really only behind to a flopped set or two pair. I probably would have put in another bet on the flop. Mp3 could be raising the flop with only top pair of jacks or a straight draw. Once the turn blank falls (completing a rainbow) and two players in front have checked (they are probably drawing), I'm thinking you have to bet this. If mp3 raises behind, I'd call and reevaluate after the river card hits. (if someone has JT, and a 3 or 4 hits on the river, their two pair is counterfeited so you have some extra outs) fwiw

Bill C · #3 07-06-2005, 12:52 AM

Your flop bet makes it 18 small; everybody with anything has odds to draw. How 'bout check raise on the flop to cut into that a little, and then bet out on the turn if a blank comes. I don't understand why you are so concerned that you are behind; while it's a possibility, it is not established. If he raises you on the turn, then I'd be a little more concerned. Right now, you have to think you have the best hand.

Just my $.02 worth...
bc

Nick C · #4 07-06-2005, 01:15 AM

Well, let's see. You're losing to AA/KK/JJ/TT (18 combos) and have just two outs against those hands (which aren't entirely clean with SB and UTG still in the pot).

You're beating AK/AQ (24 combos), but MP2 would have 7-8 outs against you with those hands. I think the likelihood of those hands also goes down somewhat when he raises your flop bet despite all the strength you've shown.

You are also beating AJs/ATs (6 combos) if he'll 3-bet preflop with those hands, and the same is true for 99/88 (12 combos). I think we should discount those possibilities quite a bit, though. KQ can't be ruled out either, but without a read I don't think we should assume MP2 is an aggressive preflop 3-bettor.

Anyway, given how the hand has played up until the action gets back to you on the flop (and the fact that it's not easy for your hand to improve), I think you are probably an underdog to MP2's range. I would probably just call. It seems to me the case for a 3-bet would be that you might have over 25-percent equity at this point versus your three opponents' hands. I'm not particularly optimistic about being ahead of MP2, though.

The turn is difficult, I think, because MP2 could be looking for a free card. However, I think it's more likely you're behind him, and if you bet and get raised again, then the chances that you're behind really go up. Unless SB and UTG are big flop peelers, I'm not expecting them to fold unless you do get raised, and MP2 isn't folding AK/AQ.

So you probably can't really protect your hand unless it isn't actually best, and I have doubts about a turn bet being for value.

I would probably check, hoping MP2 takes a free card (because that would indicate there's a good chance I am ahead after all), but not really expecting him to.

Then, if MP2 bet and SB or UTG checkraised, I would fold. But I would call if there was no checkraise.

wildwood · #5 07-06-2005, 01:52 AM

Good analysis Nick,
I made several mistakes in my original post. Forgot AA and KK could be out, and I used mp3 instead of mp2. Also I think you are exactly right that mp2 shows more strength betting into the preflop capper. Thanks for pointing all that out. fwiw

kurosh · #6 07-06-2005, 02:00 AM

3-bet the flop.

Azhrarn · #7 07-06-2005, 03:14 AM

Thanks for the responses, particularly Nick C's very detailed analysis. I was thinking along the same lines when I played the hand. Here's the full action:

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP2 3-bets, 3 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero caps, MP2 calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, SB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, SB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (16.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, SB calls, UTG folds, Hero calls.

I planned to fold the turn or river if SB or UTG checkraised. They didn't, so I felt I had to call the river since nothing changed from the turn, although I was fairly certain my hand was second best after MP2's river bet.

Final Pot: 19.50 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Qs Qh (one pair, queens).
MP2 has Kh Ks (one pair, kings).
SB has Ac Tc (one pair, tens).
Outcome: MP2 wins 19.50 BB.

Tonsafun · #8 07-06-2005, 04:44 AM

This is a pretty standard situation.

It's hard to get away from because you flopped the overpair, but you're not really beating anything except AK or AQ.

How about one of these lines? The latter is my favorite.

1. Three bet the flop and see if he caps. If he does, I think a check/fold turn is good UI. I like this if you can't decide whether you're behind or he's pulling a free card play.

2. Call the flop raise and lead the turn if you suspect the free card play. Take it from there. I would lean strongly towards folding if raised.

Does anyone think this advice is off? Thoughts?

speirs · #9 07-06-2005, 04:48 AM

You played it fine IMO. This exact same hand/situation is discussed by Jennifer Harman in Super System 2.