interesting hand

[technologic]

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This was at party, 400nl 6max. I have villan covered, he has about 400. Im new to the table, so no real reads. Folded to me on the button and I make it 15 with 53 suited. Villan calls in BB.

Flop comes A35 rainbow. Villan checks, I bet 25 into 32 pot. Villan calls. Turn is a 9 (rainbow I think). Villan checks, I bet 65 into the pot, villan moves allin for about 295 more.

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so pot is around 500, and you have to call about 300.

assuming you have 4 outs, your EV in calling is around .09 of pot. so your EV for calling in this spot is -300 + .09(800) = -228.

assuming opponent has 8 outs, your EV in calling is around .72 of pot. EV for calling is -300 + .72(800) = +276

that means your EV for the call is p(-228) + (1-p)(276)= 276-504p, where p is when villain is ahead. so if villain is ahead more than 54% of the time, then fold.

do ppl in this spot usually have aces up? i don't really see many ppl calling suited aces oop, A3s/A5s/A9s unless they're on the loosish side, and a set is kind of fishy, considering you got most of the low board on the flop and AA will usually reraise. i think you see AK/AQ type of hand enough to call here, with people "protecting" TPTK...but then again it's more of your read on the guy.