Two quick 6max hands. No pair no draw/Overbet with set on River

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
I see this move as high variance, potentially slightly +EV, more likely slightly -EV move. I mean, you're really unlikely to be ahead of his hand range here. He probably has a small pair either in the hole or with the board. He probably doesn't fold it. You could be ahead, possibly, but if there is any edge it is pretty small. If anything, I think the EV here might come from his calling you with a worse ace high...

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow that's a little scary. Almost word for word what I was thinking in my head about this hand prior to posting. Certainly marginal and high variance. I thought he probably folds overs that don't contain an A and may make a big call with a lower ace. I'll probably hold off on this type of move, I think I'm going slightly overboard since I've played about 10,000 hands of PLO for the last 2 months and haven't been able to Puuuuuush in a long time [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[jhall23]

Too follow up a little on TWP's reply regarding the overbet esp. in regard to this hand. You basically hit the idea in your original ?

By passive, yes basically the villian in calling station esque at least with cards to come and any draw possible.

This type of player is really bad and easy to make money on, but if there's one thing they have going for them is that their hand range can be huge so you don't always know where you stand. Basically when they put lots of chips in the pot you know they have close to the nuts otherwise ???. So in this hand villian could have a draw, TP ish type hand, even a lower set.

So on the river it doesn't matter whether I bet 10 or 80 if he was drawing, he will fold. He might have made Aces up and will probably auto call with that so against that hand I leave money on the table by not pushing him in, and a set will always call. If he had the nut flush draw he just made top pair. I'm using my aggressive image to hopefully convince him to make a big call. This may work with Kx as well.

One thing to think about on river pushes is that sometimes even if they only call the push x% of the time, it might be higher EV then betting an amount you know they would call. You can play around with some assumptions to test this out pretty easily.

Ex. He calls with Kx 100% of the time if I bet 25. How often does he need to call an 80 bet for that move to be better?

[amoeba]

you might be ahead of his range in hand 1 but you aren't ahead often enough to make that big raise if you have no fold equity against any pair. after all, without fold equity, all that raise is doing is charging him for his 6 outer, right?

I like check calling the flop, leading any paint turn, and check deciding on any other turn card.

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
you might be ahead of his range in hand 1 but you aren't ahead often enough to make that big raise if you have no fold equity against any pair. after all, without fold equity, all that raise is doing is charging him for his 6 outer, right?

I like check calling the flop, leading any paint turn, and check deciding on any other turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, not sure. I need to re-download poker stove and play around with my equity on the flop. In the heat of the moment with no time to think about it I basically guessed that there were enough non-pair overcard combo's that I might be good pushing there and wanted to take it down then.

check call/lead might be good, but I don't think I like check/deciding on many turns though because this guy was so aggressive I am pretty sure he bets any turn and I can't tell if I'm good or not.

[Spladle Master]

Relevant stacks
Seat 2: 253.75
Hero: 389.75

Dealt to Hero [ 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]
2 folds.
Seat 6 raises (3) to 3
1 fold.
Seat 2 raises (11.50) to 12
Hero calls (11)
1 fold.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
Seat 2 bets (24)
Hero raises (241.75) to 241.75
Seat 2 calls (217.75)
Seat 2 is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
** Dealing River ** : [ T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]

He had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

[Spladle Master]

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
1 fold.
Seat 4 raises (3) to 3
2 folds.
Hero calls (2)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
Hero bets (4)
Seat 4 calls (4)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ]
Hero checks.
Seat 4 checks.
** Dealing River ** : [ A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ]
Hero bets (93)
Hero is all-In.
Seat 4 calls (93)

He had A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].