Under full with JJ and two ultra loose players

jhall23 · #1 09-09-2005, 11:57 AM

MP1 and 2 are both super loose. MP2 is pretty aggressive post flop and MP1 is more passive post flop but get's agressive when he has a pretty good made hand.

I figure at least MP2 for an A so I'm probably looking at dodging 9 outs from him. I called to see if maybe I could get others to join in a raising war and would be willing to get all in if it came to it.

MP2 I know is agressive post flop but I don't know if he has a tell based on his pot bets or not. Should I let him keep betting into me or should I jam the turn to protect against his likely 9 outs if he hasn't hit his kicker yet?

Party Poker Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.25 BB (9 handed) converter

SB ($22.03)
BB ($25)
UTG ($56.18)
UTG+1 ($25)
MP1 ($107.66)
MP2 ($106.01)
Hero ($22.20)
CO ($22.13)
Button ($27.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets $0.25, MP2 raises to $1.95, Hero calls $1.95, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($5.40) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets $5.15, Hero ...

autobet · #2 09-09-2005, 12:03 PM

You can raise almost all in. This is probably the correct play since you are hoping to get at least one of your opps to fold.

TheRempel · #3 09-09-2005, 12:04 PM

Have you ever seen MP2 play flopped trips before? Your smooth call on the flop means he is likely to be betting both a made full house or a naked ace on the turn. There is no raise you can make here that won't put most of your stack in. With no reads, I fold. It's a pretty marginal situation. You're either a 4:1 favorite going into the river, a 39:1 dog, or drawing stone dead.

Raise the flop when it's cheap to do so and evaluate his action on the turn.

TheRempel · #4 09-09-2005, 12:05 PM

The initial bettor folded the flop. He's only up against MP2.

jhall23 · #5 09-09-2005, 12:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You can raise almost all in. This is probably the correct play since you are hoping to get at least one of your opps to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Autobet, on the turn were heads up. I would most likely jam the turn if it were still 3 way. I wasn't sure being HU though. Of course I think Axxx is the most likely hand but I can't be sure with how loose this guy was his range probably includes more than this but is heavily waited toward having an A. He could have any A here so I am not sure how likely he is to call with a weak A, but maybe protection should override this.

jhall23 · #6 09-09-2005, 12:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Have you ever seen MP2 play flopped trips before? Your smooth call on the flop means he is likely to be betting both a made full house or a naked ace on the turn. There is no raise you can make here that won't put most of your stack in. With no reads, I fold. It's a pretty marginal situation. You're either a 4:1 favorite going into the river, a 39:1 dog, or drawing stone dead.

Raise the flop when it's cheap to do so and evaluate his action on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hadn't seen him play trips yet, but he was really loose (like 80% pf) and I wouldn't be at all suprised if he would be willing to go balls to the wall with just a good A here and could easily re-raise me if I raise on the flop. He was aggressive PF as well so no raise very likely mean't no AA. Since I have JJ it just seems like it's very unlikely I'm drawing dead against someone like this.

I think raising the flop definetly has it's merits, but against this guy I don't know if I can really evaluate on the turn. I feel he is capable still betting into me with just trips.

TheRempel · #7 09-09-2005, 12:22 PM

I'm sure someone can do the math, but I think if there's a better than 60% chance he has just an ace here, you should push the turn.

jhall23 · #8 09-09-2005, 12:26 PM

I think your right I should raise the turn.

Given my last post do you still prefer to raise on the flop here as well? If so would you fold to a pot bet on the turn?

TheRempel · #9 09-09-2005, 12:28 PM

This is just one of those situations where I'd have to go by gut. If he is going to call the flop and a pot bet on the turn with an unimproved A, then I will almost always raise the flop.

PorscheNGuns · #10 09-09-2005, 03:12 PM

I would say the nature of it being a $25 PLO table lends additional odds to it being a naked ace.

One thing I can say for sure is that I would never call in this spot.

-Matt