Indy/Pitt Under

[scott8]

There are several examples in this thread of how to throw away money.

[Jibbs]

<font color="red">Why all these teases? </font>
Action. If I can't pick a side or don't have much time to properly look over a game I will sometimes make a small teaser bet just so I have a little more than a rooting interest.

<font color="red">Do people here not realize that any tease involving a total is a really bad idea? </font>
Speaking for myself, no I didn't realize that [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] I have actually been doing very good on these this season and the tease has saved my bacon a few times.

<font color="red"> The move from 48 to 54 on the total is only worth about 70 cents - it needs to be worth more than twice that to be profitable in a tease. </font>
How do you calculate that or how do you find that information. It seems to me that that could be some good info to have.


<font color="red"> At least you got it right by teasing IND (crossing the 7 and the 3), but the people who picked PIT on a tease along with the total seem to like throwing money away. </font>

Yea, I did something right [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

A couple of new things to keep in mind for me though, thanks for the insight.

[legend42]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm hedging on this game. I like the over, so I've got Over 47 (-111), one unit. If that doesn't come through, though, I think that Pittsburgh has a very good chance ot win outright, so I've got the Steelers ML (+306) for 2/3 of a unit. I expect to lose one of the bets, but I'd be surprised to lose both.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Is a Colts 24-17 win (or something similar) that difficult to conceive?

I think sometimes with these combination "hedge" bets, people lose sight of what they're betting on or against. You're basically betting on the PITT offense- which is probably the worst of the four major units in the game- on the road against a Colts defense that has given up less than 14 ppg at home this year.

Not saying that the bets are bad, and I could certainly see one or both hitting in this game, but I don't really get how they're a hedge.

[VarlosZ]

I'm liking the over even more now, and not just because the scoring is on pace to get there. Pittsburgh is running a balanced (not terribly run-heavy) offense and, more importantly, is moving at a fairly quick pace. They're leaving 8-9 seconds on the play clock every time.

[humdinger]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm liking the over even more now, and not just because the scoring is on pace to get there. Pittsburgh is running a balanced (not terribly run-heavy) offense and, more importantly, is moving at a fairly quick pace. They're leaving 8-9 seconds on the play clock every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's curious, because I'm liking the under even more. They spent over 4 minutes to move the ball 29 yards. Their D is slowing Indy way down (except the one 80 yard bomb). Their "Balanced Attack" is indeed balanced but short 5 yard passes are about the same as runs. They keep the clock running and don't move the ball down the field too fast.

hd

[VarlosZ]

The under is looking like the better side at the half. Still, Indy's offense has tended to make good adjustments to quality defenses and pick up the pace later in games, so we'll see.

Good luck.

[bugstud]

how valuable are teasers on bears-level, like 33, totals? seems like they would be worth substantially more there.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
how valuable are teasers on bears-level, like 33, totals? seems like they would be worth substantially more there.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are no 6 points that are worth teasing when it comes to totals - however, I do get a reasonable number for teasing o34 to o28 (nearly twice the difference of going from u48 to u54).

[VarlosZ]

Just like I said: Colts and the Under.

Seriously, though, nice pick. I was right about the Colts jumping out to a lead, but Pittsburgh was unable to open up the offense successfully, and Indy put on the breaks big-time after that early 3rd Quarter TD. Oh well, I'll lick 'em next week.