Standard river fold? inspired by jt1.

[milesdyson]

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I don't know miles/bnortho. what about all the pocket pairs he might have?

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i don't know. i hate that he open limped on the button

[jt1]

I think the c/c line is really intelligent poker.
I would have bet/called.

Though honestly, I think bet/folding is 2nd best. A TAG would only raise here with a worse King or a trips. It might be an expert play to raise/fold a King here, but I doubt button is an expert.

[bnorthro]

As it played out, call and make some notes on what he open/limped from button, whether he bluff/raised, etc.

I agree though that checking lets smaller PP and K's off the hook that may have paid you off. I just really hate getting raised in this spot, then questioning yourself later.

His WtS is 15, and his W%S is 71. He is really quite aggressive and I don't often get to see his cards.

These stats are over 350 hands.

I think b/cing may have been better because of the pot size. But then again I don't think this is a bluff that often. I think we get raised by AK somewhere before this river, but he could be being weird.

So either a worse K, really slowplayed set, Jx. In my opinion the Jx is probably a high majority, but I don't know the number. The question is do we win >12.5% ?

True

I logged in just to answer this post. The river is almost certainly a check-call. The fact that he open limped on the BTN makes a weak 4 even less likely, JJ is great for inducing, and you aren't ahead here more than 2/3 of the time (required to stomach a raise).

You can almost never value bet a river against a tight flat-caller when the board pairs card T or higher, IMO.

[ArturiusX]

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C/C - He might bet a smaller K when checked to as well, so you may win 1 bet from a busted draw or a smaller K, and only lose 1 when he's got that J.

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Bad advice.

[POKhER]

geee's get some decent reads mate!

And if hes on the button, and SB folded... then where are you?

I'm lost.

If your on button and hes SB it will change things i.e. 2nd pair call down as he thinks your blind stealing turned trips hence the raise.

Where as if its not a steal, i'm kind of lost as to what he may hold. Weak king improved by 2pair? I see no draws and his stats look Taggy(no read).